NBA · Finalupdated 22:52 UTC

Miami Heat vs San Antonio Spurs

at San Antonio Spurs

MIA expected to win by about 3 · both teams together expected to score about 223.5 points · odds to win: MIA 1.68, SAS 2.25

Game odds from 20 bookmakers, Sun 01:35 UTC

MIA 105 – SAS 103

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: MIA = Miami Heat, SAS = San Antonio Spurs.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

8 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 8 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Miami Heatplaying SAS

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

points 16.5 → 30 actual

Nikola Jović · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 14 actual

San Antonio Spursplaying MIA

Devin Vassell · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 1 actual

Harrison Barnes · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Julian Champagnie · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 19 actual

Stephon Castle · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 6 actual

Victor Wembanyama · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → no final stat available

What could go wrong

updated 22:52 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

SAS also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 296 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

8 other players with a posted line

Bam Adebayo · points 16.5 → 30 · 13.5 above the line · played 37.7 min · no final price

Keldon Johnson · points 10.5 → 19 · 8.5 above the line · played 26 min · no final price

Devin Vassell · assists 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 35.5 min · no final price

Stephon Castle · assists 3.5 → 6 · 2.5 above the line · played 23.4 min · no final price

Harrison Barnes · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.7 min · no final price

Julian Champagnie · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 17.4 min · no final price

Nikola Jović · points 11.5 → 14 · 2.5 above the line · played 24.6 min · no final price

Victor Wembanyama · assists 3.5 → no final stat available · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

SAS vs MIA · last 14 games · MIA leads · SAS record 4–10 · average score 108.2–112.6 · SAS has lost by 4.4 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

23 Mar · SAS 136 at MIA 111SAS won

What each defense gives up per game

MIA gives up118.5 points · 46.4 rebounds · 27.5 assists · 35.8% from three-point range

SAS gives up110.1 points · 42.6 rebounds · 25.4 assists · 35.0% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

MIA gives up 118.5 points a game · 22nd of 30 · league average 115.3+3.2 vs average

SAS gives up 110.1 points a game · 6th of 30 · league average 115.3−5.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

BetOnline.ag first had MIA expected to win by 3, expected total 223.5 (Sun 01:35 UTC) and had not changed it by Sun 01:35 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 43

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 42 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 44 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 45 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 58 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 59 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 64 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 109 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 169 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 175 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 179 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 184 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 187 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 4 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 148 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 353 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 311 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 253 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 275 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 282 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 291 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 300 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 302 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 306 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 309 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 312 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 326 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 331 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 343 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 400 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 619 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 632 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 625 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 626 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 861 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 871 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 871 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 879 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 882 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 885 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.