NBA · Mar 21 gameAll props Full sheet

Miami Heat at Houston Rockets

FinalMIA 122 – HOU 123Page updated 13:10 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Players and minutes10 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Miami Heat

Bam Adebayo · minutes unknown

rebounds 9.5 → 21 actual

Davion Mitchell · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 9 actual

Pelle Larsson · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 3 actual

Simone Fontecchio · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 21 actual

Houston Rockets

Alperen Sengun · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 19 actual

Amen Thompson · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 4 actual

Jabari Smith Jr. · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 13 actual

Kevin Durant · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 5 actual

Reed Sheppard · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 14 actual

Tari Eason · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

Game odds unavailable.

What could go wrong

updated 13:10 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

HOU also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 247 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 3 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

10 other players with a posted line

Reed Sheppard · assists 3.5 → 14 · 10.5 above the line · played 36.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.80, Under 1.41

Bam Adebayo · rebounds 9.5 → 21 · 11.5 above the line · played 45 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.55, Under 1.48

Simone Fontecchio · points 10.5 → 21 · 10.5 above the line · played 37.8 min · Caesars odds: Over 1.92, Under 1.82

Kevin Durant · 3-pointers 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 36.9 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.35, Under 1.56

Davion Mitchell · assists 5.5 → 9 · 3.5 above the line · played 37 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.63

Tari Eason · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 19.7 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.55, Under 1.48

Amen Thompson · assists 5.5 → 4 · 1.5 below the line · played 37.9 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.30, Under 1.60

Pelle Larsson · assists 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 31.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.80

Jabari Smith Jr. · points 14.5 → 13 · 1.5 below the line · played 39.9 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.00, Under 1.36

Alperen Sengun · points 19.5 → 19 · 0.5 below the line · played 32.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.05, Under 1.36

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

HOU vs MIA · last 14 games · MIA leads · HOU record 3–11 · average score 104.9–112.9 · HOU has lost by 8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

21 Mar · MIA 122 at HOU 123HOU won

28 Feb · HOU 105 at MIA 115HOU lost

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 49

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 17 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 17 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 34 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 99 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 101 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 103 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 102 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 104 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 106 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 105 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 108 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 90 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 109 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 8 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 125 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 47 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 136 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 143 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 147 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 150 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 153 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 153 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 159 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 165 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 169 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 181 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 190 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 476 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1045 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1005 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1012 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1012 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1013 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1056 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1110 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1110 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1110 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1112 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1120 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.