NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 4 · CLE leads 2–1updated 13:59 UTC

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Toronto Raptors

at Toronto Raptors

CLE expected to win by about 3.5 · both teams together expected to score about 220.5 points · odds to win: CLE 1.60, TOR 2.40

Game odds from 9 bookmakers, Sat 00:38 UTC

CLE 89 – TOR 93

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: CLE = Cleveland Cavaliers, TOR = Toronto Raptors.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

14 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 14 players has performed clearly differently and 7 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Cleveland Cavaliersplaying TOR

Donovan Mitchell · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 6 actual

Evan Mobley · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 3 actual

James Harden · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 2 actual

Jarrett Allen · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 3 actual

Jaylon Tyson · minutes unknown

3-pointers 0.5 → 0 actual

Sam Merrill · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

Toronto Raptorsplaying CLE

Collin Murray-Boyles · minutes unknown

rebounds 6.5 → 10 actual

Immanuel Quickley · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → no final stat available

Ja'Kobe Walter · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Jakob Poeltl · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 6 actual

Jamal Shead · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Jamison Battle · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 5.5 → 1 actual

RJ Barrett · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 1 actual

Scottie Barnes · minutes unknown

assists 7.5 → 6 actual

What could go wrong

updated 13:59 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 319 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 4 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

14 other players with a posted line

Jaylon Tyson · 3-pointers 0.5 → 0 · 0.5 below the line · played 20.9 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.70, Under 2.09

Sam Merrill · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 18.9 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.85

Ja'Kobe Walter · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 27 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Jamal Shead · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 25.9 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.40, Under 1.54

Jamison Battle · points + rebounds + assists 5.5 → 1 · 4.5 below the line · played 8.6 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.77

Jarrett Allen · points 12.5 → 3 · 9.5 below the line · played 26.9 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.87

RJ Barrett · assists 3.5 → 1 · 2.5 below the line · played 38.7 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.80, Under 1.41

Collin Murray-Boyles · rebounds 6.5 → 10 · 3.5 above the line · played 27.1 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.69

Donovan Mitchell · rebounds 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 36.9 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.02, Under 1.75

James Harden · 3-pointers 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 37.2 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.02

Scottie Barnes · assists 7.5 → 6 · 1.5 below the line · played 41.9 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.73, Under 2.04

Evan Mobley · assists 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 32.5 min · DraftKings odds: Over 2.26, Under 1.60

Jakob Poeltl · rebounds 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 20.9 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.69, Under 2.10

Immanuel Quickley · points 10.5 → no final stat available · FanDuel odds: Over 1.88, Under 1.88

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

TOR vs CLE · last 30 games · TOR leads · TOR record 15–15 · average score 110.7–112.4 · TOR has lost by 1.6 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

3 May · TOR 102 at CLE 114TOR lost

1 May · CLE 110 at TOR 112TOR won

29 Apr · TOR 120 at CLE 125TOR lost

26 Apr · CLE 89 at TOR 93TOR won

23 Apr · CLE 104 at TOR 126TOR won

20 Apr · TOR 105 at CLE 115TOR lost

18 Apr · TOR 113 at CLE 126TOR lost

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Fanatics first had CLE expected to win by 3, expected total 220.5 (Fri 02:58 UTC) and later CLE expected to win by 3.5, expected total 220.5 (Sat 00:38 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 75

sds games/date (2026-04-25)ok 200 · 109 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-24)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-23)ok 200 · 115 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-22)ok 200 · 117 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-21)ok 200 · 117 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-20)ok 200 · 118 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-19)ok 200 · 119 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-18)ok 200 · 120 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-17)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-16)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-15)ok 200 · 123 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-14)ok 200 · 124 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-13)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-12)ok 200 · 126 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 131 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 133 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 295 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 295 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 300 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 301 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 305 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 303 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 307 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 315 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 325 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 329 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 5 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 348 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 90 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 732 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1695 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1932 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 120 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 126 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 134 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 135 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 157 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 189 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 202 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 230 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 246 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 251 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 278 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 287 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 335 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 342 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 364 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 373 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 374 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 392 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 452 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 521 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 564 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 571 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 577 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 587 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 949 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1008 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1010 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1013 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1034 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1129 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1342 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1344 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1348 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1378 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1456 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1533 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1555 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1554 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.