Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.
Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted
Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
Our picks, raw · 16
VJ Edgecombe · U 1.5 assists+190value_edge_pct +47.01 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 2
James Harden · U 3.5 rebounds+190value_edge_pct +42.94 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 3
Donovan Mitchell · U 24.5 points+120value_edge_pct +29.98 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 4
Tyrese Maxey · U 19.5 points+200value_edge_pct +21.87 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 7
Jaylon Tyson · U 3.5 rebounds+140value_edge_pct +19.54 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 11
Donovan Mitchell · U 3.5 assists+190value_edge_pct +19.46 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 12
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope · U 4.5 points+145value_edge_pct +15.71 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 14
Jarrett Allen · U 0.5 steals+155value_edge_pct +11.42 · kelly 1.85u · price_check unchecked · rank 18
Joel Embiid · U 11.5 ra+120value_edge_pct +10.43 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 20
Evan Mobley · U 27.5 pr−132value_edge_pct +8.95 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 23
James Harden · U 23.5 pr−135value_edge_pct +7.50 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 30
James Harden · O 25.5 pa+115value_edge_pct +7.14 · kelly 1.55u · price_check unchecked · rank 31
Tyrese Maxey · O 28.5 pa+104value_edge_pct +6.01 · kelly 1.45u · price_check unchecked · rank 33
Jaylon Tyson · O 14.5 pra−141value_edge_pct +5.52 · kelly 1.95u · price_check unchecked · rank 36
Anfernee Simons · O 8.5 points−122value_edge_pct +4.21 · kelly 1.30u · price_check unchecked · rank 38
Peyton Watson · U 18.5 pr−122value_edge_pct +4.09 · kelly 1.25u · price_check unchecked · rank 40
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 22
James Harden Over 25.5 PALOSS −1.00ubet +115 · bet_clv:2309222 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.8% · unexplained · actual 21 · 32.9 min · started
Tyrese Maxey Over 28.5 PAWIN +1.04ubet +104 · bet_clv:2309213 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 52.0% · actual 38 · 41.6 min · started
Anfernee Simons Over 8.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −122 · bet_clv:2307594 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.3% · unexplained · actual 2 · 16.7 min · bench
Donovan Mitchell Under 3.5 ASTWIN +1.90ubet +190 · bet_clv:2307593 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.2% · actual 3 · 35.2 min · started
Peyton Watson Under 18.5 PRWIN +0.82ubet −122 · bet_clv:2307599 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.2% · actual 9 · 30.4 min · started
Evan Mobley Under 27.5 PRWIN +0.76ubet −132 · bet_clv:2307597 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 62.0% · actual 26 · 34.0 min · started
Tyrese Maxey Under 34.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet −150 · bet_clv:2307595 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 63.2% · unexplained · actual 41 · 41.6 min · started
Joel Embiid Under 11.5 RAWIN +1.20ubet +120 · bet_clv:2305991 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.2% · actual 8 · 34.4 min · started
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Under 4.5 PTSWIN +1.45ubet +145 · bet_clv:2305990 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.2% · actual 3 · 24.9 min · started
James Harden Under 3.5 REBWIN +1.90ubet +190 · bet_clv:2305989 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.3% · actual 3 · 32.9 min · started
James Harden Under 23.5 PRWIN +0.74ubet −135 · bet_clv:2305988 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.8% · actual 19 · 32.9 min · started
VJ Edgecombe Under 5.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −200 · bet_clv:2305987 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 71.0% · unexplained · actual 7 · 33.2 min · started
VJ Edgecombe Under 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +190 · bet_clv:2305986 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 50.7% · unexplained · actual 6 · 33.2 min · started
Jaylon Tyson Over 14.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet −141 · bet_clv:2305984 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.7% · unexplained · actual 11 · 24.0 min · started
Evan Mobley Over 0.5 3PMWIN +0.64ubet −156 · bet_clv:2305983 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.9% · actual 1 · 34.0 min · started
Sam Merrill Under 9.5 PTSWIN +0.59ubet −170 · bet_clv:2305981 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.9% · actual 5 · 24.3 min · started
Tyrese Maxey Under 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +200 · bet_clv:2305980 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 40.6% · unexplained · actual 32 · 41.6 min · started
Jarrett Allen Under 0.5 STLWIN +1.55ubet +155 · bet_clv:2305979 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.7% · actual 0 · 28.2 min · started
Jarrett Allen Under 14.5 PTSWIN +0.59ubet −170 · bet_clv:2305978 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.5% · actual 14 · 28.2 min · started
Donovan Mitchell Under 24.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +120 · bet_clv:2305977 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 59.1% · unexplained · actual 32 · 35.2 min · started
Evan Mobley Under 19.5 PTSWIN +0.50ubet −200 · bet_clv:2305982 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 66.3% · actual 18 · 34.0 min · started
Jaylon Tyson Under 3.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +140 · bet_clv:2305985 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-22T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.8% · unexplained · actual 6 · 24.0 min · started
Data fetches · 28
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 15 ms
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 15 ms
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 15 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 15 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 16 ms
grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 94 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 97 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 98 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 99 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 100 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 104 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 106 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 119 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 137 ms
grading verdict/board (price-only)failed 502 · 194 ms
odds player timeline (ra)failed 503 · 82 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 103 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 109 ms
odds player timeline (steals)failed 503 · 116 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 116 ms
odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 118 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 120 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 121 ms
odds player timeline (pr)failed 503 · 133 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 133 ms
odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 137 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 473 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 1426 ms