Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.
Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted
Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26
Our picks, raw · 39
Kyrie Irving · O 20.5 points+223value_edge_pct +50.13 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 13
Daniel Gafford · U 5.5 rebounds+215value_edge_pct +36.38 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 20
P.J. Washington · O 2.5 assists+280value_edge_pct +30.40 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 33
Obi Toppin · U 9.5 points+185value_edge_pct +27.19 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 41
Naji Marshall · U 9.5 points+163value_edge_pct +24.51 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 48
Cooper Flagg · U 5.5 rebounds+144value_edge_pct +21.87 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 56
Obi Toppin · U 10.5 points+170value_edge_pct +19.89 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 70
P.J. Washington · U 4.5 rebounds+215value_edge_pct +17.48 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 90
Pascal Siakam · U 19.5 points+180value_edge_pct +17.35 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 91
Max Christie · U 1.5 assists+150value_edge_pct +15.10 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 106
Ivica Zubac · U 1.5 assists+180value_edge_pct +14.96 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 107
Aaron Nesmith · O 12.5 points+125value_edge_pct +14.64 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 111
Daniel Gafford · U 6.5 rebounds+146value_edge_pct +14.36 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 115
Andrew Nembhard · U 5.5 assists+170value_edge_pct +14.06 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 117
Max Christie · U 9.5 points+130value_edge_pct +13.89 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 120
Kelly Oubre Jr. · O 4.5 rebounds+162value_edge_pct +13.75 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 123
Naji Marshall · O 4.5 rebounds+165value_edge_pct +12.83 · kelly 1.95u · price_check unchecked · rank 136
P.J. Washington · O 1.5 threes+153value_edge_pct +12.15 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 141
Cooper Flagg · U 4.5 assists+145value_edge_pct +10.71 · kelly 1.85u · price_check unchecked · rank 166
Max Christie · U 0.5 steals+130value_edge_pct +10.60 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 171
Cooper Flagg · O 1.5 threes+156value_edge_pct +10.56 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 174
Pascal Siakam · U 22.5 points+126value_edge_pct +10.23 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 179
Cooper Flagg · O 5.5 assists+148value_edge_pct +9.88 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 189
Cooper Flagg · U 34.5 pra+115value_edge_pct +9.55 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 199
Naji Marshall · U 12.5 points+120value_edge_pct +9.54 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 202
Obi Toppin · U 11.5 points+120value_edge_pct +8.57 · kelly 1.80u · price_check unchecked · rank 223
Obi Toppin · U 17.5 pra+130value_edge_pct +8.28 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 235
Cooper Flagg · O 25.5 points+121value_edge_pct +8.10 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 242
Max Christie · O 5.5 ra+122value_edge_pct +7.99 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 245
Ivica Zubac · O 16.5 points+130value_edge_pct +7.83 · kelly 1.50u · price_check unchecked · rank 254
Ivica Zubac · U 14.5 points+120value_edge_pct +7.63 · kelly 1.60u · price_check unchecked · rank 261
Pascal Siakam · O 23.5 points+111value_edge_pct +7.51 · kelly 1.70u · price_check unchecked · rank 275
Zaccharie Risacher · U 14.5 pra−135value_edge_pct +7.04 · kelly 2.00u · price_check unchecked · rank 290
Naji Marshall · U 20.5 pra+115value_edge_pct +6.90 · kelly 1.50u · price_check unchecked · rank 304
Andrew Nembhard · O 2.5 rebounds−114value_edge_pct +5.79 · kelly 1.65u · price_check unchecked · rank 324
P.J. Washington · O 11.5 points−120value_edge_pct +4.99 · kelly 1.50u · price_check unchecked · rank 343
Cooper Flagg · O 0.5 blocks−120value_edge_pct +4.52 · kelly 1.35u · price_check unchecked · rank 354
Pascal Siakam · U 24.5 points−127value_edge_pct +4.41 · kelly 1.40u · price_check unchecked · rank 356
Tyrese Haliburton · U 20.5 points−138value_edge_pct +3.60 · kelly 1.25u · price_check unchecked · rank 373
Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 54
P.J. Washington Under 4.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +215 · bet_clv:2335287 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 37.3% · unexplained · actual 13 · 33.1 min · started
Kelly Oubre Jr. Over 0.5 STLWIN +0.68ubet −148 · bet_clv:2335280 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.7% · actual 1 · 19.6 min · bench
Cooper Flagg Over 25.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +121 · bet_clv:2329293 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.9% · unexplained · actual 14 · 17.0 min · bench
Cooper Flagg Under 4.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +145 · bet_clv:2329291 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 45.2% · unexplained · actual 6 · 17.0 min · bench
Zaccharie Risacher Under 14.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet −135 · bet_clv:2329290 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.5% · unexplained · actual 18 · 31.8 min · started
Max Christie Over 1.5 3PMWIN +0.69ubet −144 · bet_clv:2329289 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.8% · actual 2 · 37.9 min · started
Max Christie Under 0.5 STLLOSS −1.00ubet +130 · bet_clv:2329288 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.1% · unexplained · actual 1 · 37.9 min · started
Aaron Nesmith Over 12.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +125 · bet_clv:2329284 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · unexplained · actual 9 · 20.1 min · started
Tyrese Haliburton Under 20.5 PTSWIN +0.72ubet −138 · bet_clv:2329283 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 60.1% · actual 18 · 32.2 min · started
Obi Toppin Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +185 · bet_clv:2329282 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.6% · unexplained · actual 13 · 25.2 min · started
Andrew Nembhard Under 7.5 ASTWIN +0.50ubet −200 · bet_clv:2329279 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 69.1% · actual 5 · 32.3 min · started
Andrew Nembhard Under 5.5 ASTWIN +1.70ubet +170 · bet_clv:2329278 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.2% · actual 5 · 32.3 min · started
P.J. Washington Over 11.5 PTSWIN +0.83ubet −120 · bet_clv:2329277 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.3% · actual 20 · 33.1 min · started
Ivica Zubac Under 14.5 PTSWIN +1.20ubet +120 · bet_clv:2329276 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.9% · actual 9 · 23.6 min · started
Ivica Zubac Over 16.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +130 · bet_clv:2329275 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.9% · unexplained · actual 9 · 23.6 min · started
Ivica Zubac Under 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +180 · bet_clv:2329273 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.1% · unexplained · actual 2 · 23.6 min · started
Pascal Siakam Under 24.5 PTSWIN +0.79ubet −127 · bet_clv:2329270 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 58.4% · actual 23 · 28.9 min · started
Kelly Oubre Jr. Under 4.5 REBWIN +0.45ubet −220 · bet_clv:2329269 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 66.0% · actual 2 · 19.6 min · bench
Cooper Flagg Under 5.5 REBWIN +1.44ubet +144 · bet_clv:2318276 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.9% · actual 5 · 17.0 min · bench
Cooper Flagg Under 34.5 PRAWIN +1.15ubet +115 · bet_clv:2318275 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · actual 25 · 17.0 min · bench
Naji Marshall Over 4.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +165 · bet_clv:2318271 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 42.6% · unexplained · actual 4 · 33.3 min · started
Naji Marshall Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +163 · bet_clv:2318270 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.3% · unexplained · actual 15 · 33.3 min · started
Obi Toppin Under 5.5 REBWIN +0.45ubet −220 · bet_clv:2318269 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 65.4% · actual 5 · 25.2 min · started
Obi Toppin Under 11.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +120 · bet_clv:2318268 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.4% · unexplained · actual 13 · 25.2 min · started
Obi Toppin Under 14.5 PTSWIN +0.54ubet −185 · bet_clv:2318267 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 66.0% · actual 13 · 25.2 min · started
Daniel Gafford Under 5.5 REBWIN +2.15ubet +215 · bet_clv:2318265 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.3% · actual 3 · 14.6 min · bench
Andrew Nembhard Over 2.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −114 · bet_clv:2318263 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 56.4% · unexplained · actual 2 · 32.3 min · started
Ivica Zubac Under 13.5 REBWIN +0.41ubet −245 · bet_clv:2318261 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 72.3% · actual 11 · 23.6 min · started
Pascal Siakam Under 19.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +180 · bet_clv:2318260 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 41.9% · unexplained · actual 23 · 28.9 min · started
Kelly Oubre Jr. Over 4.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet +162 · bet_clv:2318258 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.4% · unexplained · actual 2 · 19.6 min · bench
Pascal Siakam Under 22.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +126 · bet_clv:2318259 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.8% · unexplained · actual 23 · 28.9 min · started
Cooper Flagg Over 0.5 BLKWIN +0.83ubet −120 · bet_clv:2318274 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 B · p_hit 57.0% · actual 1 · 17.0 min · bench
Kyrie Irving Over 20.5 PTSWIN +2.23ubet +223 · bet_clv:2311450 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.5% · actual 24 · 24.9 min · started
Kyrie Irving Under 5.5 ASTWIN +0.34ubet −295 · bet_clv:2311449 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 74.4% · actual 3 · 24.9 min · started
Cooper Flagg Over 1.5 3PMWIN +1.56ubet +156 · bet_clv:2311448 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 43.2% · actual 2 · 17.0 min · bench
Cooper Flagg Over 5.5 ASTWIN +1.48ubet +148 · bet_clv:2311447 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.3% · actual 6 · 17.0 min · bench
Max Christie Over 5.5 RAWIN +1.22ubet +122 · bet_clv:2311446 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 48.6% · actual 8 · 37.9 min · started
Max Christie Under 9.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +130 · bet_clv:2311445 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.5% · unexplained · actual 16 · 37.9 min · started
Max Christie Under 1.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +150 · bet_clv:2311444 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.0% · unexplained · actual 4 · 37.9 min · started
Naji Marshall Under 20.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +115 · bet_clv:2311443 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.7% · unexplained · actual 25 · 33.3 min · started
Naji Marshall Under 12.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +120 · bet_clv:2311442 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 49.8% · unexplained · actual 15 · 33.3 min · started
Naji Marshall Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −145 · bet_clv:2311441 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 64.5% · unexplained · actual 15 · 33.3 min · started
Tyrese Haliburton Under 4.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −210 · bet_clv:2311440 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 65.1% · unexplained · actual 6 · 32.2 min · started
Obi Toppin Under 17.5 PRALOSS −1.00ubet +130 · bet_clv:2311439 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 47.1% · unexplained · actual 19 · 25.2 min · started
Obi Toppin Under 10.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +170 · bet_clv:2311438 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.4% · unexplained · actual 13 · 25.2 min · started
Daniel Gafford Under 6.5 REBWIN +1.46ubet +146 · bet_clv:2311437 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 46.5% · actual 3 · 14.6 min · bench
Andrew Nembhard Under 3.5 REBWIN +0.50ubet −200 · bet_clv:2311436 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 69.2% · actual 2 · 32.3 min · started
P.J. Washington Over 1.5 3PMWIN +1.53ubet +153 · bet_clv:2311435 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 44.3% · actual 2 · 33.1 min · started
P.J. Washington Under 6.5 REBLOSS −1.00ubet −150 · bet_clv:2311434 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A · p_hit 61.8% · unexplained · actual 13 · 33.1 min · started
P.J. Washington Under 14.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet −185 · bet_clv:2311433 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 66.9% · unexplained · actual 20 · 33.1 min · started
P.J. Washington Over 2.5 ASTLOSS −1.00ubet +280 · bet_clv:2311432 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 34.3% · unexplained · actual 0 · 33.1 min · started
Ivica Zubac Under 19.5 PTSWIN +0.36ubet −280 · bet_clv:2311431 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 74.7% · actual 9 · 23.6 min · started
Ivica Zubac Under 3.5 ASTWIN +0.24ubet −420 · bet_clv:2311430 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 A+ · p_hit 80.2% · actual 2 · 23.6 min · started
Pascal Siakam Over 23.5 PTSLOSS −1.00ubet +111 · bet_clv:2311429 · consensus_devig · captured 2026-10-23T00:00:00Z · grade_v2 PASS · p_hit 51.0% · unexplained · actual 23 · 28.9 min · started
Data fetches · 28
sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 70 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 71 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 71 ms
sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 71 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 80 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 86 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 117 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 119 ms
grading picks/published (saved-only)ok · 167 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 219 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 221 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 222 ms
odds game timelinefailed 503 · 228 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 232 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 261 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 178 ms
grading verdict/board (price-only)failed 502 · 362 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 184 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 205 ms
odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 206 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 213 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 223 ms
odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 223 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 224 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 227 ms
odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 231 ms
odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 331 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 574 ms