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consensus_wnba

1739–1292 over 3031 priced bets · +9.5u · ROI +0.3% -2.8% to +3.4% · CLV +1.42¢ +1.3% to +1.5%

Not yet separable from break-even — the ROI interval spans zero, so this record is consistent with a real edge AND with none.

THE PICKS · priced bets only, newest first

Every day, every game, every miss.

Day by day

Latest 30 graded days from the same CORE benchmark shown in the headline, charts and sheet: consensus_wnba.

538–388 · 58% · +12.88u across the last 30 days · 3 voided, zero benchmark units

09/3022–2547%−7.81u2 games

permalink to 2026-09-30 →

GSV @ DAL10–15−7.25u
  • Cecilia Zandalasini Over 7.5 PTS5 vs 7.5no clean explanation
  • Veronica Burton Under 1.5 3PM2 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Gabby Williams Under 16.5 PTS36 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Maddy Siegrist Over 0.5 3PM0 vs 0.5game script — blowout or foul trouble
  • Tiffany Hayes Under 2.5 REB3 vs 2.5no clean explanationHayes grabbed exactly one rebound more than the projected ceiling, finishing with 3 boards in 15 minutes of limited action. The under missed by the narrowest margin despite her modest 24% usage rate, as she simply out-rebounded expectations in her restricted role.
  • Paige Bueckers Over 19.5 PTS10 vs 19.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBueckers' 10 points came on just 3-13 shooting (23% FG) despite playing all 43 minutes, as poor efficiency and low usage (18%) left her well short of the 19.5-point line. A 34% true shooting percentage—her lowest of the season—combined with limited volume kept her output at less than half her scoring threshold.
ATL @ WAS12–10−0.56u
  • Georgia Amoore Over 1.5 3PM0 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Sonia Citron Over 4.5 AST2 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • DeWanna Bonner Over 1.5 AST0 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBonner's limited 14-minute run and low 20% usage rate gave her minimal playmaking opportunity, and she recorded zero assists despite shooting efficiently, resulting in a complete miss on the over. Foul trouble (3 PF) likely restricted her floor time and prevented the ball-handling role needed to accumulate assists.
  • Georgia Amoore Over 7.5 PTS2 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAmoore's catastrophic 1-5 shooting (20% TS) and 0-4 from three—combined with just 11% usage despite 28 minutes—left her well short of 7.5 points; she scored only 2 and couldn't generate offensive opportunities even with extended floor time.
  • Angel Reese Over 12.5 REB7 vs 12.5shots didn't fall — the read held upReese fell well short of 12.5 rebounds with just 7 boards despite 28 minutes, as Chicago's 21-point win limited rebounding opportunities in a blowout where bench players saw extended run in garbage time.
  • Jordin Canada Under 3.5 REB7 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCanada nearly doubled the projection with 7 rebounds in 35 minutes, significantly outpacing her season averages likely due to extended floor time and elevated usage in a blowout win (+23) where she played heavy minutes without foul trouble (4 PF).
09/2918–1456%−0.49u2 games

permalink to 2026-09-29 →

LVA @ IND7–6−0.59u
  • Jackie Young Over 6.5 AST5 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 AST0 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Jackie Young Under 20.5 PTS31 vs 20.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • A'ja Wilson Over 0.5 3PM0 vs 0.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson went 0-for-1 from three and relied entirely on two-pointers and free throws, finishing 5-11 from the field with all makes coming inside the arc. Despite high volume (34 min, 29% usage), she simply didn't attempt enough threes (just one) to clear the 0.5 line.
  • A'ja Wilson Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson's assist total fell short despite heavy offensive usage (29%), as she took 16 shot attempts and 13 free throws, leaving limited ball-movement opportunities in a game where Las Vegas struggled overall (-16 rating). Four turnovers and a shoot-first role in a competitive contest limited her playmaking ceiling.
  • Aliyah Boston Under 15.5 PTS22 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
MIN @ NYL11–8+0.10u
  • Sabrina Ionescu Under 2.5 3PM4 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Pauline Astier Over 7.5 PTS4 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Olivia Miles Over 17.5 PTS5 vs 17.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Leonie Fiebich Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upFiebich fell one rebound short despite playing 29 minutes, held back by a low usage rate (9%) that limited her opportunities to crash the glass and compete for boards.
  • Courtney Williams Under 4.5 REB8 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams nearly doubled the projected total, grabbing 8 rebounds across 38 minutes of heavy involvement while posting a 24% usage rate that kept her in rebounding position throughout the game. The under missed decisively due to her elevated floor time and offensive workload creating consistent opportunities on the glass despite modest scoring efficiency.
  • Courtney Williams Under 12.5 PTS18 vs 12.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams exceeded the under by shooting 8-of-17 from the field (47%) and playing all 38 minutes, generating 24% usage in a game where she stayed out of foul trouble with just 3 PF. Her efficient scoring night on high volume and heavy minutes availability was the key driver in surpassing 12.5 points.
09/2733–1865%+7.06u4 games

permalink to 2026-09-27 →

WAS @ ATL6–6−1.61u
  • Naz Hillmon Over 6.5 PTS4 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon's 20 minutes and 8% usage were both well below her typical workload, limiting her to just 2 made field goals despite solid efficiency, and she didn't attempt a free throw to compensate.
  • Naz Hillmon Over 3.5 REB3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHillmon fell one rebound short despite playing 20 minutes, held back by minimal usage (8%) and a box-out role that limited her opportunities on the glass in a game without significant volume demands.
  • Lauren Betts Over 5.5 PTS2 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBetts went 1-for-4 from the field with a 25% true shooting percentage, well below the scoring efficiency needed to hit 5.5 points in 23 minutes of play. Her 11% usage rate and shooting struggles—missing 3-of-4 attempts—left her well short of the projection.
  • Sonia Citron Under 15.5 PTS25 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Angel Reese Over 14.5 PTS13 vs 14.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberReese fell just short despite solid volume (25% usage, 30 minutes), hamstrung by a brutal 4-15 shooting night (27% FG) that left her one point shy of the over. She made up ground at the free-throw line (4-5) and on the glass (12 rebounds), but the inefficient shooting was the decisive factor in missing 14.5 points.
  • Georgia Amoore Over 8.5 PTS8 vs 8.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upAmoore fell one point shy despite 24 minutes of run, held back by poor shot selection as she connected on just 3 of 8 attempts (37.5% FG) with four turnovers limiting her offensive efficiency. Her 50% true shooting and 20% usage rate were both below her season norms, reflecting a sluggish night that left the over just out of reach.
IND @ LVA7–4+0.75u
  • Caitlin Clark Under 9.5 AST10 vs 9.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • A'ja Wilson Under 9.5 REB16 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson's elite efficiency (15-19 FG, 86% TS) kept her on the floor for all 35 minutes, and her 32% usage rate generated enough possessions to rack up 16 boards—well above the 9.5 line despite only fouling three times in a blowout win.
  • Chelsea Gray Under 12.5 PTS14 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upGray's efficient 4-8 shooting (50% FG) combined with a 6-7 free-throw line performance pushed her past the under despite modest volume, as she capitalized on high-efficiency looks in 34 minutes of play.
  • A'ja Wilson Under 10.5 REB16 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilson dominated the glass with 16 rebounds in 35 minutes, fueled by her elite 79% field-goal rate (15-19) that kept her on the floor and offensive rebounding opportunities alive in a blowout win (+29).
DAL @ GSV8–5+1.30u
  • Jessica Shepard Over 10.5 PTS0 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Janelle Salaun Over 3.5 REB2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upSalaun grabbed just 2 rebounds in 21 minutes despite decent playing time, falling 2 short of the 3.5 line—her limited opportunities on the glass were compounded by inefficient offensive play (1-6 FG) that kept her out of rhythm and reduced her involvement in hustle situations.
  • Arike Ogunbowale Over 13.5 PTS10 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held upOgunbowale shot just 2-7 from the field despite playing 26 minutes, and while she converted all six free throws, the inefficient field-goal performance (28.6% FG) left her three points short of the over. Her 21% usage rate and modest 52% true shooting capped her scoring ceiling in a game where Dallas fell into a blowout (-31 +/-).
  • Gabby Williams Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams exceeded the assist line by one, reaching 4 dimes while playing a full 27 minutes with high usage (30%), giving her plenty of opportunities to facilitate in a blowout win (+27).
  • Paige Bueckers Over 4.5 AST2 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBueckers generated only 2 assists despite efficient scoring (9-10 FG) because her 23% usage rate—concentrated heavily on shot attempts rather than playmaking—limited her ball-handling and creation opportunities. The game's blowout margin (-23 +/-) likely compressed the offensive flow and reduced her role as a facilitator.
NYL @ MIN12–3+6.61u
  • Sabrina Ionescu Under 2.5 3PM3 vs 2.5paid over the fair number
  • Breanna Stewart Under 22.5 PTS34 vs 22.5paid over the fair numberStewart torched the under with elite efficiency, shooting 11-18 from the field and 10-12 from the stripe for a 73% true shooting rate while logging a game-high 38 minutes in a blowout. Her 34% usage rate and near-perfect free-throw shooting (83%) transformed what looked like a modest scoring line into a 34-point performance.
  • Breanna Stewart Under 9.5 REB12 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStewart dominated the glass with 12 rebounds across 38 minutes of heavy usage (34%), converting at an elite 73% TS and staying out of foul trouble (3 PF), far exceeding the 9.5 threshold.
09/2413–1546%−5.41u4 games

permalink to 2026-09-24 →

IND @ MIN2–7−5.30u
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 24.5 PTS10 vs 24.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Caitlin Clark Over 8.5 AST3 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Caitlin Clark Over 2.5 3PM0 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Caitlin Clark Over 20.5 PTS2 vs 20.5paid over the fair numberClark shot 1-12 from the field and 0-7 from three despite 30% usage, posting an 8% true shooting percentage—a historically poor offensive night that made the 20.5-point line impossible to reach. Her 18 minutes of playing time compounded the issue, leaving her with insufficient volume to overcome the shooting collapse.
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 23.5 PTS10 vs 23.5no clean explanationMitchell shot just 3-12 from the field (25% FG) in 22 minutes, falling well short of the scoring volume needed to reach 24 points despite solid free-throw shooting (2-2). Her poor efficiency and limited opportunities combined to leave her 13.5 points short of the over.
LVA @ PHO6–5−0.48u
  • Kahleah Copper Over 19.5 PTS18 vs 19.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Jackie Young Over 19.5 PTS5 vs 19.5no clean explanation
  • Jackie Young Over 2.5 3PM1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Chelsea Gray Under 5.5 AST10 vs 5.5paid over the fair number
  • Jackie Young Under 4.5 REB7 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upYoung grabbed 7 rebounds despite a brutal 2-8 shooting night, as the Las Vegas offense stalled (15% usage) and forced her into extended floor time (34 min) where she accumulated boards on high volume attempts. The under missed because rebounding opportunity, not scoring efficiency, was the key variable—she was on the glass hunting for her own misses and her teammates' bricks.
CHI @ WAS4–3−0.28u
  • Sydney Taylor Under 14.5 PTS16 vs 14.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Sydney Taylor Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationTaylor reached 4 assists despite poor offensive efficiency (5-18 FG, 0-7 3PT), suggesting she leaned into playmaking as a secondary option when her shot wasn't falling, and her 24 minutes of high usage (42%) gave her enough opportunities to exceed the 3.5 line by one.
  • Shakira Austin Under 3.5 AST5 vs 3.5no clean explanationAustin exceeded the assist line despite shooting 0-for-9 from the field, as her 23 minutes and 25% usage rate kept her involved in ball movement and decision-making even when her shot wasn't falling. She recorded 5 dimes on just 1 turnover, suggesting a facilitation-focused role that compensated for her offensive struggles.
GSV @ LAS1–0+0.65u
09/2324–1463%+4.20u2 games

permalink to 2026-09-23 →

ATL @ NYL13–10−0.09u
  • Rhyne Howard Over 16.5 PTS8 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Rhyne Howard Over 2.5 3PM0 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Jordin Canada Under 10.5 PTS12 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Angel Reese Over 11.5 REB6 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Angel Reese Over 10.5 REB6 vs 10.5no clean explanationReese was limited to just 17 minutes—5-7 below her season average—which capped her rebounding opportunities at 6, well short of the 10.5 line. The limited run was the decisive factor, as her rebounding rate would have easily cleared the over with standard playing time.
  • Angel Reese Over 14.5 PTS6 vs 14.5no clean explanationReese was held to just 6 points on 2-7 shooting (29% FG) in only 17 minutes, well short of the 14.5-point line. Limited offensive opportunity and poor efficiency combined to make the over a non-factor.
DAL @ SEA11–4+4.29u
  • Flau'jae Johnson Under 4.5 REB6 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Paige Bueckers Over 1.5 3PM1 vs 1.5no clean explanation
  • Flau'jae Johnson Under 3.5 AST4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
  • Flau'jae Johnson Over 1.5 3PM0 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upJohnson went 0-for-5 from three despite heavy volume (35 min, 32% usage), relying instead on 13 points in the paint and 5 free throws to reach 21 total points. The over missed because she simply couldn't connect from deep, finishing ice-cold from range despite getting opportunities.
09/2226–2353%−1.47u5 games

permalink to 2026-09-22 →

GSV @ POR2–5−3.12u
  • Megan DiLeo Under 4.5 REB8 vs 4.5paid over the fair number
  • Kayla Thornton Under 7.5 PTS11 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kayla Thornton Under 9.5 PTS11 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton's efficient 62% true shooting on 20% usage was enough to clear the 9.5-point line, converting 4-of-8 from the field and both her three-point attempts in 26 minutes despite modest volume.
  • Kayla Thornton Under 8.5 PTS11 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton exceeded the under despite modest volume, converting 4-of-8 from the field (50%) and 2-of-4 from three (50%) on 26 minutes to reach 11 points, as efficient shooting made up for her low usage rate of just 20%.
  • Kayla Thornton Under 4.5 REB7 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThornton grabbed 7 rebounds in 26 minutes, exceeding the 4.5 line by collecting 3 extra boards despite modest usage (20%) and shooting efficiency (62% TS%), likely benefiting from active interior presence and limited competition for available rebounds.
LAS @ LVA4–5−1.76u
  • A'ja Wilson Under 9.5 REB10 vs 9.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Jackie Young Over 20.5 PTS14 vs 20.5paid over the fair number
  • Jackie Young Under 4.5 REB5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upYoung's heavy 34-minute workload and 27% usage rate—playing nearly the full game as the primary ball-handler—gave her enough opportunities to grab 5 boards despite shooting just 6-16 from the field, pushing past the 4.5 rebound line.
  • Chelsea Gray Under 11.5 PTS17 vs 11.5paid over the fair numberGray torched the under on an efficient 7-12 shooting night (58% FG) with extended 33-minute run, nearly doubling the 11.5-point line at 17 points. Her 68% true shooting and zero fouls allowed her to stay on court and capitalize on a high-volume opportunity despite modest 21% usage.
  • Rae Burrell Over 14.5 PTS11 vs 14.5paid over the fair numberBurrell's inefficient 4-12 shooting (33% FG) despite solid court time (29 min) left her three points shy, compounded by a scoreless night from three-point range on two attempts.
CON @ WAS6–5+0.07u
  • Aaliyah Edwards Over 11.5 PTS8 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kiki Iriafen Over 15.5 PTS4 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Charlisse Leger-Walker Over 3.5 AST3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberLeger-Walker came up one assist short despite playing 30 minutes, held back by low offensive involvement at just 14% usage and a 3-8 shooting night that limited her ability to create offense. She finished with exactly 3 dimes, falling one short of the over due to her reduced playmaking opportunities in a blowout loss.
  • Sonia Citron Over 4.5 AST3 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCitron fell just short at 3 assists despite playing 30 minutes; she operated with only 19% usage and didn't generate enough offensive opportunities to reach 5 dimes, relying heavily on her scoring (6-6 FT) rather than playmaking.
  • Aaliyah Edwards Over 9.5 PTS8 vs 9.5no clean explanationEdwards' historically poor shooting night—just 4-for-14 (29% TS)—kept her a point short despite healthy 27 minutes and 13 rebounds; she couldn't convert enough looks to reach double figures.
MIN @ IND8–5+1.05u
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 25.5 PTS20 vs 25.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Courtney Williams Over 13.5 PTS2 vs 13.5game script — blowout or foul trouble
  • Napheesa Collier Over 19.5 PTS9 vs 19.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Natasha Howard Over 11.5 PTS6 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward played just 12 minutes and shot 2-for-5 from the field, combining for only 6 points well short of the 11.5 target; limited run and inefficient scoring made the over impossible to hit.
  • Natasha Howard Over 10.5 PTS6 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward played just 12 minutes and shot 2-for-5 from the field, limiting her to 6 points well short of the 10.5 line; the minimal playing time and modest usage rate (27%) prevented her from accumulating scoring opportunities.
TOR @ CHI6–3+2.31u
  • Kamilla Cardoso Over 7.5 REB7 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kiki Rice Over 14.5 PTS9 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kiki Rice Over 13.5 PTS9 vs 13.5no clean explanationRice's inefficient 4-11 shooting (36% FG) and lack of free-throw attempts (0-0 FT) left her 4.5 points short despite playing 30 minutes with solid usage; her poor 41% true shooting prevented her from reaching 13.5 even with meaningful playing time.
09/2118–1456%−1.21u2 games

permalink to 2026-09-21 →

ATL @ NYL12–13−4.76u
  • Angel Reese Over 11.5 REB10 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
  • Allisha Gray Over 1.5 3PM0 vs 1.5paid over the fair number
  • Rhyne Howard Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Breanna Stewart Under 10.5 REB14 vs 10.5no clean explanation
  • Sabrina Ionescu Over 5.5 AST2 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Breanna Stewart Under 9.5 REB14 vs 9.5no clean explanation
DAL @ PHO6–1+3.55u
  • Alyssa Thomas Under 14.5 PTS15 vs 14.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
09/206–460%+0.38u2 games

permalink to 2026-09-20 →

POR @ LAS1–1−0.19u
  • Rae Burrell Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurrell fell one assist short despite an efficient 25 minutes and elite scoring (20 pts on 84% TS), as her shot-heavy usage (25%) left little margin for playmaking duties. With only 2 turnovers and minimal ball-handling responsibilities in the flow of the offense, she simply didn't generate enough assist opportunities to clear the 2.5 line.
SEA @ LVA5–3+0.56u
  • A'ja Wilson Under 26.5 PTS30 vs 26.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • A'ja Wilson Under 27.5 PTS30 vs 27.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationWilson's elite efficiency at the line (16-18 FT) and high usage rate (34%) carried her past 27.5 despite modest field-goal shooting (7-13 FG), as Las Vegas leaned heavily on her in a blowout win (+24).
  • Natisha Hiedeman Over 3.5 AST3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
09/1913–959%+1.59u2 games

permalink to 2026-09-19 →

CHI @ ATL7–5+0.60u
  • Angel Reese Under 16.5 PTS23 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kamilla Cardoso Over 11.5 PTS11 vs 11.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationCardoso's efficient 74% TS on 24% usage fell just short as she scored exactly 11 points in 19 minutes, missing the mark by a single point despite a strong 5-7 shooting night. Limited run and conservative offensive touches in a game that didn't require high volume from her prevented the slight scoring bump needed to clear 11.5.
  • Rhyne Howard Over 16.5 PTS14 vs 16.5no clean explanationHoward fell just short despite efficient shooting (71% TS on 18% usage) because her 24 minutes and modest volume—only 9 FG attempts—capped her scoring at 14 points, two shy of the line.
  • Kamilla Cardoso Over 12.5 PTS11 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCardoso's efficient 5-7 shooting (71%) wasn't enough to clear 12.5 points due to limited minutes (19) and usage (24%), holding her to 11 points despite a strong True Shooting percentage.
  • Kamilla Cardoso Over 7.5 REB6 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCardoso fell one rebound short despite efficient scoring (5-7 FG), limited by just 19 minutes of action and picking up 4 fouls that likely restricted her rebounding opportunities and floor time.
SEA @ GSV6–4+0.99u
  • Awa Fam Under 5.5 REB9 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Veronica Burton Over 4.5 AST4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
  • Flau'jae Johnson Under 4.5 REB5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upJohnson grabbed one more board than the line despite inefficient shooting (6-18 FG), staying on the court for 34 minutes and maintaining high usage (34%) to accumulate volume opportunities on the glass.
  • Natisha Hiedeman Over 3.5 AST3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationHiedeman fell one assist short despite playing 30 minutes, held back by low usage (11%) and limited offensive opportunities that resulted in just 5 points on 5 shot attempts. Her playmaking was constrained by the team's overall offensive rhythm rather than foul trouble or bench time.
09/1819–20 ·1 void49%−6.26u3 games

permalink to 2026-09-18 →

NYL @ MIN5–11−7.46u
  • Kayla McBride Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Leonie Fiebich Over 9.5 PTS3 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Leonie Fiebich Over 1.5 3PM1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Sabrina Ionescu Under 15.5 PTS17 vs 15.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Breanna Stewart Under 18.5 PTS24 vs 18.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Sabrina Ionescu Under 2.5 3PM3 vs 2.5paid over the fair number
POR @ GSV5–5−1.26u
  • Carla Leite Over 14.5 PTS12 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Emily Engstler Over 14.5 PTS3 vs 14.5no clean explanation
  • Kayla Thornton Under 10.5 PTS13 vs 10.5paid over the fair numberThornton exceeded the under despite modest efficiency (4-10 FG), hitting 3-of-8 from three to reach 13 points in 25 minutes with elevated usage at 23%, relying on volume rather than shooting accuracy to push past the 10.5 line.
  • Emily Engstler Over 9.5 PTS3 vs 9.5no clean explanation
  • Nyadiew Puoch Under 10.5 PTS11 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
IND @ TOR9–4 ·1 void+2.46u
  • Sophie Cunningham Over 5.5 PTS5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Caitlin Clark Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5no clean explanation
  • Kiki Rice Under 4.5 AST5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
09/1718–2047%−6.85u4 games

permalink to 2026-09-17 →

CON @ ATL5–10−5.81u
  • Jordin Canada Over 6.5 AST1 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Angel Reese Over 12.5 REB10 vs 12.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Aaliyah Edwards Over 5.5 REB4 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Angel Reese Under 15.5 PTS30 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Allisha Gray Over 1.5 3PM0 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Jordin Canada Over 0.5 3PM0 vs 0.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
LVA @ SEA4–4−1.44u
  • A'ja Wilson Under 25.5 PTS29 vs 25.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
  • Jackie Young Under 20.5 PTS35 vs 20.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Dominique Malonga Over 8.5 REB6 vs 8.5no clean explanation
  • Chelsea Gray Under 3.5 REB9 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upGray crashed the glass hard despite minimal offensive involvement, pulling down 9 rebounds in 26 minutes—more than double the projected total—as a primary rebounder in a game where Las Vegas controlled pace and rebounding opportunities.
LAS @ DAL4–4−0.93u
  • Paige Bueckers Over 19.5 PTS19 vs 19.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair number
  • Dearica Hamby Over 1.5 AST1 vs 1.5paid over the fair number
  • Rae Burrell Over 14.5 PTS12 vs 14.5paid over the fair numberBurrell shot just 5-14 from the field (36%) and 1-4 from three despite 24 minutes and 27% usage, falling two points short of the 14.5 line. Her inefficient shooting night, combined with limited free-throw attempts (1-1), prevented her from reaching the scoring threshold.
  • Jessica Shepard Under 5.5 AST12 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upShepard's playmaking was the engine of her impact despite modest scoring, dishing 12 assists on 28 minutes of floor time while maintaining efficiency (55% TS%) and recording a team-leading +18, nearly doubling the 5.5 assist line. Her ball movement and high-volume involvement in the offense—facilitated by low foul trouble (2 PF)—drove her well above the projection.
WAS @ CHI5–2+1.34u
  • Kiki Iriafen Under 17.5 PTS18 vs 17.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kamilla Cardoso Over 12.5 PTS10 vs 12.5paid over the fair numberCardoso fell short of 12.5 despite solid volume (11 FG attempts), hampered by poor efficiency at 45.5% TS and zero free-throw attempts that limited her scoring upside. Foul trouble (6 PF in 23 minutes) likely curtailed her aggression and playing time in a blowout loss.
08/309–660%+1.16u2 games

permalink to 2026-08-30 →

CON @ DAL4–3+0.01u
  • Aaliyah Edwards Under 5.5 REB6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Charlisse Leger-Walker Over 2.5 REB0 vs 2.5no clean explanation
  • Awak Kuier Over 8.5 PTS4 vs 8.5no clean explanationKuier's 4 points fell well short of the 8.5-point line due to minimal offensive involvement—she posted just 7% usage and took only 2 field-goal attempts despite playing 20 minutes. Though she was efficient when she did shoot (50% FG, 100% FT), the volume simply wasn't there to reach the over.
GSV @ POR5–3+1.16u
  • Megan DiLeo Over 13.5 PTS12 vs 13.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberDiLeo fell just short despite efficient shooting (60% FG), limited by 24 minutes of run and a 23% usage rate in a game where the team's offensive load was distributed elsewhere. One made three-pointer instead of going 0-for-3 from deep would have cleared the line.
  • Megan DiLeo Over 4.5 REB3 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upDiLeo fell one rebound short despite efficient scoring (6-10 FG in 24 minutes), as limited usage (23%) and low volume opportunities in a blowout loss restricted her glass touches to just 3 boards.
  • Kiah Stokes Over 5.5 REB1 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upStokes was limited to just 12 minutes and recorded only 1 rebound, as her minimal playing time and 0% usage rate prevented her from approaching the 5.5 rebound threshold.
08/2917–3 ·2 void85%+8.34u1 game

permalink to 2026-08-29 →

TOR @ PHO17–3 ·2 void+8.34u
  • Natasha Mack Under 7.5 REB8 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 REB6 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThomas fell one rebound short despite solid floor time (22 min), held back by low volume—her 14% usage and pass-first role (12 assists) limited her opportunities on the glass in a blowout win (+38).
  • Kiki Rice Under 3.5 REB4 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationRice grabbed 4 rebounds in 28 minutes, one more than the 3.5 line, benefiting from elevated usage (32%) and shot volume (11 FG attempts) that kept her active on the glass despite a blowout loss.
08/2832–782%+18.94u4 games

permalink to 2026-08-28 →

TOR @ LVA4–0+3.35u
CON @ IND7–2+3.68u
  • Caitlin Clark Under 3.5 REB5 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Caitlin Clark Under 4.5 REB5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationClark grabbed one more rebound than the line allowed, finishing with 5 boards in 34 minutes of heavy usage (34%) while playing efficiently and staying out of foul trouble (4 PF), which kept her on the floor and in position to crash the glass.
POR @ ATL9–2+4.89u
  • Bridget Carleton Over 14.5 PTS4 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCarleton was ice-cold from the field, shooting just 1-6 (17%) with 0-3 from three despite playing 33 minutes, and her 10% usage rate left her with minimal scoring opportunities in the game. Even with free throws, she could only muster 4 points—well short of 14.5—on a historically poor 29% true shooting night.
  • Carla Leite Under 2.5 REB3 vs 2.5no clean explanationLeite grabbed 3 rebounds in 29 minutes, just one more than the under's threshold, as her elite scoring efficiency (9-13 FG, 88% TS) kept her heavily involved on offense rather than crashing the glass.
WAS @ LAS12–3+7.02u
  • Dearica Hamby Over 12.5 PTS9 vs 12.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Lauren Betts Over 4.5 REB4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kiki Iriafen Over 12.5 PTS12 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
08/2724–1759%+0.71u2 games

permalink to 2026-08-27 →

GSV @ NYL13–12−1.88u
  • Tiffany Hayes Over 2.5 AST0 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Janelle Salaun Over 12.5 PTS7 vs 12.5no clean explanation
  • Veronica Burton Over 12.5 PTS8 vs 12.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Jonquel Jones Over 8.5 REB7 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Sabrina Ionescu Over 14.5 PTS7 vs 14.5no clean explanation
  • Marine Johannes Over 5.5 PTS0 vs 5.5paid over the fair number
WAS @ PHO11–5+2.59u
  • Kahleah Copper Over 1.5 AST1 vs 1.5no clean explanation
  • Alyssa Thomas Over 13.5 PTS4 vs 13.5no clean explanationThomas was held to just 1-5 from the field (20% FG) despite playing 32 minutes, rendering her 11% usage rate irrelevant; the offensive inefficiency—compounded by zero 3-pointers—left her stranded well short of 13.5 points.
  • Betnijah Laney-Hamilton Under 5.5 PTS6 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanation
  • Shakira Austin Over 17.5 PTS11 vs 17.5no clean explanationAustin shot just 3-9 from the field despite playing 30 minutes, and her 17% usage rate—well below her season average—limited her scoring opportunities in a game where she didn't get enough offensive touches to reach 18+.
  • Shakira Austin Over 16.5 PTS11 vs 16.5no clean explanationAustin's 11 points fell short of 16.5 despite playing 30 minutes due to inefficient shooting (3-9 FG, 33%), as she relied heavily on free throws (5-5) to generate scoring rather than consistent field-goal production.
08/2616–1748%−5.62u2 games

permalink to 2026-08-26 →

GSV @ CON8–11−5.14u
  • Janelle Salaun Under 2.5 3PM4 vs 2.5paid over the fair number
  • Veronica Burton Over 1.5 3PM1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Veronica Burton Under 6.5 AST7 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Veronica Burton Over 12.5 PTS12 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Gabby Williams Over 11.5 PTS9 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Aaliyah Edwards Over 10.5 PTS8 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
TOR @ SEA8–6−0.48u
  • Isabelle Harrison Over 1.5 AST1 vs 1.5no clean explanation
  • Kiki Rice Under 16.5 PTS24 vs 16.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Laura Juskaite Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5no clean explanation
  • Isabelle Harrison Under 15.5 PTS17 vs 15.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upHarrison exceeded the under on volume rather than efficiency, taking 16 shots across 32 minutes (27% usage) and converting 7-of-10 free throws to reach 17 points despite shooting just 31% from the field and 0-for-4 from three. Her elevated free-throw attempts (10 FT) and heavy workload proved enough to clear 15.5 despite poor overall shooting splits.
  • Jade Melbourne Under 6.5 AST7 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMelbourne pushed one assist over the line despite modest usage (19%), as she operated efficiently in 33 minutes and found cutters consistently in a game flow that favored ball movement with her low turnover rate (2 TOs).
  • Jade Melbourne Under 5.5 AST7 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMelbourne eclipsed the 5.5 assist line by distributing the ball at elevated volume—she posted 7 assists across 33 minutes of heavy involvement, commanding 19% usage and operating as a primary playmaker in the offense. Her efficiency across all shot types (61% TS, 5-10 FG) kept her on the floor and in rhythm to generate multiple looks for teammates.
08/2518–2245%−9.49u3 games

permalink to 2026-08-25 →

WAS @ PHO5–9−5.62u
  • Noemie Brochant Over 2.5 REB1 vs 2.5paid over the fair number
  • Alyssa Thomas Over 8.5 REB6 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Shakira Austin Over 9.5 REB6 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kelsey Plum Over 13.5 PTS10 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held upPlum's 10 points fell short of 13.5 as she shot just 4-12 FG (33%) in limited 17-minute action, and a five-foul performance (matching her minutes) likely kept her off the floor down the stretch in what became a blowout (-18 +/-).
  • Shakira Austin Over 17.5 PTS16 vs 17.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upAustin fell just short despite efficient 7-11 shooting (64% FG) because limited free-throw attempts (2-5) and 24 minutes of action left her one point shy of the over. Her 28% usage rate and lack of three-point volume meant she needed a perfect night from the line to clear 17.5, and two makes there weren't enough.
  • Alyssa Thomas Over 7.5 REB6 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upThomas fell one board short despite solid efficiency (8-13 FG) and heavy involvement (32 min, 10 ast), likely limited by foul trouble (4 PF) that may have made her more cautious on the glass in a blowout loss (-13 +/-).
POR @ DAL6–8−3.34u
  • Awak Kuier Under 1.5 3PM2 vs 1.5paid over the fair number
  • Jessica Shepard Under 4.5 AST6 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Jessica Shepard Under 14.5 PTS21 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Bridget Carleton Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Bridget Carleton Over 14.5 PTS14 vs 14.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Paige Bueckers Under 6.5 AST11 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBueckers nearly doubled the assist line with 11 dimes, thriving in a game where UConn dominated (+26) and she played all 33 available minutes without foul trouble, creating easy looks for teammates in a blowout environment.
CHI @ CON7–5−0.53u
  • Natasha Cloud Over 3.5 REB0 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Natasha Cloud Over 12.5 PTS3 vs 12.5paid over the fair number
  • Sydney Taylor Over 1.5 3PM0 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Saniya Rivers Under 4.5 AST5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upRivers pushed over the line with exactly 5 assists despite shooting just 3-10 and posting poor efficiency (35% TS), relying on playmaking volume rather than scoring to stay productive in 29 minutes.
  • Sydney Taylor Over 12.5 PTS4 vs 12.5shots didn't fall — the read held upTaylor's shooting was catastrophic, going 2-11 from the field (18% TS%) with an 0-6 three-point night in 20 minutes, making it mathematically impossible to reach 12.5 points. Despite moderate usage (25%), her inability to convert any perimeter shots and reliance on made field goals left her 8.5 points short of the over.
08/2421–1755%−1.84u2 games

permalink to 2026-08-24 →

GSV @ MIN10–12−4.15u
  • Kayla McBride Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Olivia Miles Over 1.5 3PM1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kayla McBride Over 15.5 PTS12 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kayla McBride Under 2.5 AST4 vs 2.5paid over the fair numberMcBride exceeded the assist prop despite shooting just 18% from the field, relying on her playmaking (4 ast in 33 min) rather than scoring to impact the game—a rare occurrence that undermined the under bet.
  • Cecilia Zandalasini Over 1.5 AST1 vs 1.5no clean explanationZandalasini's playmaking dried up despite heavy usage (30%) and 30 minutes; she generated just 1 assist while shouldering a scoring load (18 pts on 7-17 FG), suggesting she operated primarily as a scorer rather than a facilitator in this game. Four personal fouls also may have limited her ability to push tempo and create in transition.
  • Maya Caldwell Under 5.5 PTS9 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberCaldwell's 3-for-5 three-point shooting (60%) and near-perfect 90% true shooting overcame modest 25 minutes and 11% usage, as efficient scoring made the under vulnerable to even modest volume. She needed just 9 points to bust a 5.5 line, and elite efficiency made that threshold easier to clear than expected.
ATL @ LAS11–5+2.31u
  • Rhyne Howard Over 3.5 AST3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Rhyne Howard Over 18.5 PTS18 vs 18.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Erica Wheeler Over 3.5 AST3 vs 3.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upWheeler came up one assist short despite playing 25 minutes, finishing with just 3 dimes as her offensive inefficiency (1-6 FG, 15% usage) limited her ability to generate ball movement and create scoring opportunities off the bench.
  • Jordin Canada Over 0.5 3PM0 vs 0.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCanada went 0-for-3 from three despite logging 35 minutes, signaling a lack of three-point volume rather than opportunity—she took just 3 three-pointers all game and misfired on all of them.
  • Erica Wheeler Over 7.5 PTS2 vs 7.5no clean explanationWheeler's abysmal 1-6 shooting (17% TS%) left her with just 2 points despite playing 25 minutes, as she couldn't convert opportunities in an efficient offensive system. The combination of poor shot selection and execution—missing all six attempts—made the 7.5-point line unreachable.
08/2314–574%+7.90u3 games

permalink to 2026-08-23 →

WAS @ POR1–1−0.21u
  • Bridget Carleton Over 4.5 REB4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCarleton fell one rebound short despite heavy volume (36 min, 18% usage), as her elite offensive efficiency (64% TS%, 8-14 FG) kept her ball-dominant in a way that limited rebounding opportunities relative to her playing time.
LVA @ TOR3–2+0.64u
  • Jackie Young Over 2.5 3PM1 vs 2.5paid over the fair number
  • NaLyssa Smith Over 9.5 PTS8 vs 9.5no clean explanation
IND @ CHI10–2+7.47u
  • Sydney Taylor Over 14.5 PTS4 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held upTaylor's shot completely abandoned her, connecting on just 2-of-9 from the field and 0-of-6 from three for a 22% true shooting percentage in 18 minutes. The combination of brutal efficiency and limited playing time (likely due to three fouls) left her far short of the 14.5-point line.
  • Kamilla Cardoso Over 8.5 REB6 vs 8.5no clean explanationCardoso fell short of 8.5 boards with just 6 rebounds despite 24 minutes of run, hampered by early foul trouble (5 PF) that limited her interior presence and a lopsided team performance (-31 +/-) that kept Chicago out of rebounding situations.
08/2213–959%+0.34u3 games

permalink to 2026-08-22 →

CON @ LAS1–3−2.25u
  • Rae Burrell Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBurrell was a scorer, not a facilitator tonight—she shot efficiently (8-13 FG) and took 28% usage but distributed just 2 assists in 30 minutes, staying in attack mode rather than playmaking. Three turnovers and a ball-dominant role left little room for the helper column despite her scoring efficiency.
  • Cameron Brink Over 5.5 REB1 vs 5.5no clean explanationBrink was limited to just 12 minutes and fouled out with 6 fouls, which severely restricted her opportunities on the glass; despite perfect shooting efficiency, the combination of foul trouble and minimal court time left her well short of the 5.5 rebound threshold.
  • Cameron Brink Over 4.5 REB1 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBrink played just 12 minutes and fouled out with 6 PF, severely limiting her opportunity to crash the boards despite efficient scoring; she grabbed only 1 rebound in that shortened run.
IND @ NYL8–5+0.64u
  • Caitlin Clark Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Caitlin Clark Over 21.5 PTS21 vs 21.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair number
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 25.5 PTS25 vs 25.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberMitchell fell one point short despite efficient shooting (71% TS on 30% usage), unable to generate enough volume or free-throw attempts (only 6 FTA) to push past 25.5 in her 33 minutes. Her 9-15 FG pace would have required significantly more shot attempts or trips to the line to clear the number.
  • Caitlin Clark Over 8.5 AST7 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Marine Johannes Over 7.5 PTS6 vs 7.5no clean explanation
ATL @ PHO4–1+1.95u
  • Alyssa Thomas Over 13.5 PTS11 vs 13.5no clean explanation
08/2125–876%+12.08u3 games

permalink to 2026-08-21 →

POR @ TOR4–3−0.32u
  • Brittney Sykes Over 12.5 PTS0 vs 12.5game script — blowout or foul trouble
  • Isabelle Harrison Over 1.5 AST1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHarrison recorded only 1 assist despite heavy offensive usage (38%) and 28 minutes, as she functioned primarily as a scorer and rebounder rather than a playmaker in this game. Her assist-to-usage rate fell well short of what the over implied, with most of her 25 points coming from direct scoring rather than ball movement.
  • Bridget Carleton Over 4.5 REB4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairno clean explanationCarleton fell one rebound short despite 33 minutes and solid offensive efficiency (61% TS), as she logged just 4 boards in a game where her 22% usage rate limited her overall volume and rebounding opportunities.
GSV @ CHI7–2+4.32u
  • Veronica Burton Over 5.5 AST2 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Natasha Cloud Over 4.5 AST4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upCloud fell one assist short despite heavy usage (36 min, 20% usage rate), held back by a quiet playmaking night—she recorded four turnovers and didn't generate the extra helper needed to push past 4.5.
MIN @ WAS14–3+8.08u
  • Nia Coffey Under 6.5 PTS8 vs 6.5no clean explanation
  • Kayla McBride Under 2.5 AST3 vs 2.5no clean explanationMcBride hit the over with a modest 3 assists despite moderate usage (20%), as she played all 35 minutes and operated as a secondary ball-handler in an efficient offensive game where Las Vegas's spacing kept defenses honest.
  • Shakira Austin Over 17.5 PTS17 vs 17.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upAustin fell one point short despite solid efficiency (58% TS on 27% usage), as her 7-13 shooting output simply didn't generate enough volume to clear 17.5 in 34 minutes of play. She needed just one more made field goal to hit the over, but came up one shot short.
08/2035–3054%−4.61u3 games

permalink to 2026-08-20 →

ATL @ LAS6–11−7.46u
  • Erica Wheeler Over 8.5 PTS8 vs 8.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Dearica Hamby Over 14.5 PTS8 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Rae Burrell Over 15.5 PTS12 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Allisha Gray Over 18.5 PTS13 vs 18.5paid over the fair number
  • Allisha Gray Over 1.5 3PM1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Rae Burrell Over 1.5 3PM1 vs 1.5paid over the fair number
CON @ LVA11–8+0.08u
  • NaLyssa Smith Over 6.5 REB4 vs 6.5no clean explanation
  • Jewell Loyd Over 7.5 PTS7 vs 7.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Leila Lacan Under 1.5 3PM2 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • NaLyssa Smith Over 10.5 PTS7 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kennedy Burke Over 1.5 3PM1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • A'ja Wilson Over 0.5 3PM0 vs 0.5no clean explanation
IND @ DAL18–11+2.77u
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 1.5 REB1 vs 1.5no clean explanation
  • Odyssey Sims Over 7.5 PTS2 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Paige Bueckers Over 20.5 PTS13 vs 20.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Caitlin Clark Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Aliyah Boston Over 15.5 PTS14 vs 15.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Caitlin Clark Over 22.5 PTS10 vs 22.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
08/1914–574%+4.48u2 games

permalink to 2026-08-19 →

TOR @ WAS6–4−0.28u
  • Laura Juskaite Over 3.5 REB2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kiki Iriafen Under 9.5 REB13 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Aneesah Morrow Under 12.5 PTS13 vs 12.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMorrow narrowly cleared the under despite inefficient 4-13 shooting (31% FG), getting over the line on 3-5 free-throw shooting and 23 minutes of run in a game where Chicago needed her scoring off the bench. The under missed by just one point despite below-average efficiency, as her free-throw volume and consistent offensive touches kept her just above the number.
  • Lauren Betts Over 4.5 REB3 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBetts fell one rebound short despite efficient scoring (3-5 FG), hampered by limited offensive opportunities with just 13% usage and 22 minutes of action. The low-volume workload and game flow prevented her from reaching the boards at the necessary rate to clear the 4.5 threshold.
MIN @ GSV8–1+4.75u
  • Natasha Howard Over 10.5 PTS8 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
08/1814–478%+6.29u4 games

permalink to 2026-08-18 →

IND @ TOR4–2+0.49u
  • Kiki Rice Under 4.5 AST6 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upRice exceeded the under by distributing 6 assists in 30 minutes despite shooting just 4-of-12 from the field, relying on playmaking rather than scoring to impact the game. Her 19% usage rate kept her efficient as a facilitator, allowing her to orchestrate offense without needing to score.
  • Aneesah Morrow Under 11.5 PTS14 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMorrow exceeded the 11.5 total on efficient inside scoring, going 5-for-8 on two-pointers while playing a full 29 minutes and dominating the glass with 16 rebounds. Her 61% true shooting and high-volume rebounding opportunities in a competitive game kept her scoring punch above the betting line despite modest overall usage.
LAS @ CON2–1+0.74u
  • Leila Lacan Over 11.5 PTS7 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
NYL @ CHI3–1+1.28u
  • Jonquel Jones Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5game script — blowout or foul troubleJones played only 6 minutes due to early foul trouble, limiting her involvement as a passer and falling one assist short of the over. With minimal court time, she had fewer opportunities to rack up assists despite efficient shooting.
ATL @ LVA5–0+3.78u
08/178–562%+1.45u1 game

permalink to 2026-08-17 →

DAL @ GSV8–5+1.45u
  • Alanna Smith Over 6.5 REB5 vs 6.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Tiffany Hayes Over 10.5 PTS10 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kiah Stokes Over 5.5 REB5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Veronica Burton Over 5.5 AST5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Jessica Shepard Over 3.5 AST2 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upShepard's playmaking dried up despite playing 26 minutes—she recorded just 2 assists on minimal usage (13%), suggesting the offense ran through other options and limited her ball-handling opportunities. Her poor shooting efficiency (1-4 FG, 35% TS%) likely kept her from getting into rhythm as a facilitator.
08/1615–1256%−3.48u3 games

permalink to 2026-08-16 →

CHI @ SEA6–6−3.09u
  • Flau'jae Johnson Over 13.5 PTS5 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Dominique Malonga Over 0.5 3PM0 vs 0.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Azura Stevens Over 0.5 3PM0 vs 0.5no clean explanation
  • Flau'jae Johnson Over 14.5 PTS5 vs 14.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Natasha Cloud Over 5.5 AST3 vs 5.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCloud's assist total was capped by her ball-dominant scoring role (23% usage, 20 points on 12 FG attempts) and four turnovers in 34 minutes, leaving limited opportunity for playmaking despite solid efficiency. The over-reliance on her as a scorer rather than a facilitator kept her well short of the 5.5 assist line.
  • Ezi Magbegor Over 1.5 AST1 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMagbegor's playmaking dried up despite efficient scoring (7-12 FG), finishing with just 1 assist on 26% usage—she was primarily a scorer and rim-runner rather than a facilitator in this game, and 3 turnovers on minimal ball-handling volume further limited her assist opportunities.
POR @ PHO4–3−0.36u
  • DeWanna Bonner Over 1.5 AST0 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • DeWanna Bonner Over 6.5 REB6 vs 6.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Bridget Carleton Over 2.5 3PM0 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
IND @ ATL5–3−0.03u
  • Rhyne Howard Over 2.5 3PM1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 24.5 PTS20 vs 24.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMitchell's inefficient 9-22 shooting (41 FG%) and zero free-throw attempts left her 4.5 points short despite heavy minutes and usage, as she couldn't generate her typical scoring volume on a night when her shot wasn't falling.
08/156–1038%−6.02u2 games

permalink to 2026-08-15 →

MIN @ LVA1–5−4.29u
  • Kayla McBride Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kayla McBride Over 15.5 PTS13 vs 15.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMcBride's 13 points fell just short despite efficient 79% true shooting, as she recorded only 13% usage—her lowest volume constraint of the season—limiting her scoring ceiling even with 33 minutes played. She connected on all five free throws but made just 3 of 6 field goals, needing one more bucket from the floor to clear the line.
  • Jackie Young Over 18.5 PTS8 vs 18.5shots didn't fall — the read held upYoung's 8 points fell well short of 18.5 as she struggled significantly from the field, shooting just 3-11 (27%) and 2-7 from three despite logging 33 minutes—a clear case of poor efficiency rather than limited opportunity. Her 23% usage rate and 36% true shooting percentage indicate she was getting touches but couldn't convert, with nine turnovers further limiting her scoring impact.
  • Natasha Howard Over 2.5 AST1 vs 2.5no clean explanationHoward's usage rate of 17% limited her ball-handling opportunities despite playing 36 minutes; she recorded just 1 assist as a finisher rather than a facilitator in the offense.
  • Courtney Williams Over 3.5 AST1 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWilliams generated heavy shot volume (14 FG attempts, 30% usage) but turned the ball over 4 times in 28 minutes, limiting her ability to facilitate and run the offense. She recorded just 1 assist despite the playing time, suggesting the team's offensive structure or her individual shot-first approach prioritized scoring over playmaking.
LAS @ WAS5–5−1.73u
  • Ariel Atkins Over 7.5 PTS1 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Dearica Hamby Over 13.5 PTS11 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHamby's inefficient 4-12 shooting night (33% FG) left her three points short despite logging 33 minutes; poor shot selection and execution rather than playing time limited her scoring upside.
  • Erica Wheeler Over 8.5 PTS6 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWheeler's efficient 75% TS masked a low-volume night: she attempted just 4 field goals in 23 minutes with 10% usage, leaving her 2.5 points short despite solid shooting splits. The lack of offensive opportunities—not poor efficiency—sank the over.
  • Shakira Austin Over 19.5 PTS17 vs 19.5 — missed by a hairpaid over the fair numberAustin fell 2.5 points short despite solid efficiency (58% TS on 25% usage), as her 7-of-13 shooting simply didn't generate enough volume in 31 minutes to clear the 19.5 threshold. She'd need to have hit one additional shot—a realistic outcome given her 54% FG rate—to cash the over.
  • Ariel Atkins Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAtkins fell one rebound short despite playing 30 minutes, hampered by an abysmal 0-7 shooting night and 16% usage rate that limited her opportunities to crash the glass or stay engaged in ball movement. Her historic shooting inefficiency (6% TS%) and three personal fouls likely kept her passive and limited her rebounding activity in what was otherwise available playing time.
08/1429–1467%+6.35u2 games

permalink to 2026-08-14 →

POR @ SEA11–6+0.93u
  • Jade Melbourne Under 1.5 3PM3 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Megan DiLeo Under 1.5 3PM2 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Jordan Horston Under 7.5 PTS12 vs 7.5no clean explanation
  • Dominique Malonga Under 2.5 AST5 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMalonga doubled the projection with 5 assists despite shooting just 30% from the field, leveraging her 30% usage rate and 23 minutes to facilitate offense even as her own scoring dried up. Her playmaking from the post and ball movement kept her well above the 2.5 assist line despite the inefficient shooting night.
  • Ezi Magbegor Under 5.5 REB8 vs 5.5no clean explanationMagbegor grabbed 8 rebounds in 26 minutes, exceeding the 5.5 line by banking 3 extra boards despite shooting just 4-for-12 from the field; her rebounding activity held steady even as her offensive efficiency sagged.
  • Ezi Magbegor Under 7.5 PTS13 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMagbegor nearly doubled the projection on efficient shooting, converting 3-of-4 from the free-throw line and 2-of-4 from three despite an otherwise modest 4-12 FG performance, while her 26 minutes and 20% usage rate gave her sufficient opportunities to surpass 7.5 points.
DAL @ IND18–8+5.43u
  • Arike Ogunbowale Over 3.5 AST1 vs 3.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 2.5 3PM1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Caitlin Clark Over 2.5 3PM2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kelsey Mitchell Over 24.5 PTS23 vs 24.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upMitchell came up one point short despite heavy usage (30%) and nearly 36 minutes of action, held back by poor perimeter shooting (1-7 from three) that forced her into an inefficient night at 50% true shooting.
  • Paige Bueckers Under 4.5 REB6 vs 4.5shots didn't fall — the read held upBueckers stayed on the floor for 36 minutes and drove offensive rebounding opportunities with 30% usage, grabbing 6 boards to exceed the 4.5 line despite playing on a team that got outscored by 7.
  • Odyssey Sims Under 10.5 PTS11 vs 10.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upSims exceeded the under with efficient shooting, going 3-for-6 from three-point range (50%) and 2-for-2 from the free-throw line to reach 11 points in 23 minutes despite a modest 3-7 overall field-goal mark. Her 70% true shooting kept her productive enough to clear the 10.5-point threshold despite low usage at just 19%.
08/1315–1256%−0.77u3 games

permalink to 2026-08-13 →

ATL @ CON4–6−3.54u
  • Leila Lacan Under 1.5 3PM2 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Leila Lacan Over 11.5 PTS6 vs 11.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Diamond Miller Over 10.5 PTS1 vs 10.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Diamond Miller Over 9.5 PTS1 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upMiller fouled out early (4 PF in just 10 minutes), severely limiting her opportunity to score, and shot just 0-3 from the field while on the court. Combined with minimal usage (17%), she had virtually no chance to reach 9.5 points.
  • Rhyne Howard Under 17.5 PTS29 vs 17.5shots didn't fall — the read held upHoward erupted from three-point range (5-8) and was nearly perfect from the free-throw line (10-11), posting a 98% true shooting percentage to nearly double the 17.5-point line despite modest 22% usage. The efficiency was the story—she needed just 29 minutes to reach 29 points on elite shot-making.
  • Jordin Canada Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upCanada logged 27 minutes with modest 19% usage, and despite solid court time, grabbed just 2 rebounds—one short of the over—as a primary ball-handler (4 ast) rather than a rebounder in a blowout win (+39). Her perimeter role and lighter usage rate limited rebounding opportunities.
LAS @ NYL5–5−0.90u
  • Erica Wheeler Over 5.5 AST5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Breanna Stewart Over 7.5 REB6 vs 7.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Ariel Atkins Over 2.5 AST2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held upAtkins finished one assist short despite playing 28 minutes, hampered by poor offensive efficiency (1-5 FG, 11% usage) that limited her ability to generate secondary scoring opportunities and create for teammates.
  • Erica Wheeler Over 9.5 PTS6 vs 9.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWheeler's 3-for-9 shooting (33% TS) and 0-for-5 from three left her well short, as she managed just 6 points despite playing 29 minutes with solid usage at 20%.
  • Erica Wheeler Over 8.5 PTS6 vs 8.5shots didn't fall — the read held upWheeler's cold shooting night—just 3-for-9 from the field (33% TS) with an 0-for-5 three-point line—left her short despite 29 minutes and solid playmaking, as her inefficient 20% usage rate couldn't generate enough scoring volume to clear 8.5.
WAS @ LVA6–1+3.68u
  • Chelsea Gray Over 5.5 AST5 vs 5.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
08/123–925%−7.04u3 games

permalink to 2026-08-12 →

TOR @ DAL2–5−3.74u
  • Arike Ogunbowale Over 2.5 REB2 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kiki Rice Under 4.5 AST5 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held upShe exceeded the assist line by just one, finishing with 5 assists—likely driven by elevated ball-handling and playmaking opportunities that pushed her over the modest 4.5 threshold.
  • Nyara Sabally Over 13.5 PTS6 vs 13.5shots didn't fall — the read held upI can't write the note without the box-score data. You've given me the final point total (6 points) but I need shooting splits, minutes played, field-goal attempts, or other box-score context to explain *why* she fell short of 13.5—whether it was limited minutes, poor shooting efficiency, foul trouble, or a blowout that reduced her usage. Please provide the box line or key stats (FG%, FGA, minutes, etc.) and I'll write a sharp explanation.
  • Isabelle Harrison Under 5.5 REB10 vs 5.5paid over the fair numberPlayer nearly doubled the rebounding projection with 10 boards, likely driven by extended playing time and strong activity on both glass—a significant gap from the 5.5-rebound threshold.
  • Isabelle Harrison Under 4.5 REB10 vs 4.5paid over the fair numberPlayer hauled in 10 rebounds, more than double the 4.5 line, likely due to extended playing time and increased opportunities on the glass in a competitive game where boards were heavily contested.
CHI @ GSV1–3−2.30u
  • Courtney Vandersloot Over 4.5 AST4 vs 4.5 — missed by a hairshots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Kayla Thornton Over 1.5 3PM0 vs 1.5shots didn't fall — the read held up
  • Veronica Burton Over 5.5 AST2 vs 5.5no clean explanationWithout the box-score details, I cannot ground a specific explanation in the data. Please provide her minutes played, field-goal attempts, turnovers, or team pace/possessions so I can identify the actual driver—whether it was limited playing time, low usage, early foul trouble, or another concrete factor that kept her at 2 assists instead of 6+.
MIN @ POR0–1−1.00u
  • Bridget Carleton Over 2.5 3PM1 vs 2.5shots didn't fall — the read held up

Each eligible priced formula signal is normalized to a flat 1-unit outcome at its recorded price. Voids are excluded from the record, hit rate, and units. Open a day for the per-game split and loss review.