NBA · Finalupdated 16:24 UTC

Portland Trail Blazers vs Houston Rockets

at Houston Rockets

No game odds posted yet

POR 99 – HOU 106

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: POR = Portland Trail Blazers, HOU = Houston Rockets.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

14 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 14 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Portland Trail Blazersplaying HOU

Donovan Clingan · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 18 actual

Jrue Holiday · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 10 actual

Robert Williams III · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 8 actual

Scoot Henderson · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 4 actual

Sidy Cissoko · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 0 actual

Toumani Camara · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 4 actual

Vít Krejčí · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 0 actual

Houston Rocketsplaying POR

Alperen Sengun · minutes unknown

points 19.5 → 28 actual

Amen Thompson · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 26 actual

Clint Capela · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 2 actual

Jabari Smith Jr. · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → no final stat available

Kevin Durant · minutes unknown

points 26.5 → 20 actual

Reed Sheppard · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 17 actual

Tari Eason · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

What could go wrong

updated 16:24 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

HOU also played the day before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 246 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

14 other players with a posted line

Sidy Cissoko · points 4.5 → 0 · 4.5 below the line · played 12.1 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.74

Vít Krejčí · points 8.5 → 0 · 8.5 below the line · played 20.4 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.79

Tari Eason · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 25.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.77, Under 2.00

Jrue Holiday · assists 5.5 → 10 · 4.5 above the line · played 37 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.80, Under 1.41

Scoot Henderson · points 13.5 → 4 · 9.5 below the line · played 19.7 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.75, Under 1.42

Amen Thompson · points 15.5 → 26 · 10.5 above the line · played 39.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.75, Under 1.42

Toumani Camara · 3-pointers 2.5 → 4 · 1.5 above the line · played 39.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.77

Donovan Clingan · points 12.5 → 18 · 5.5 above the line · played 25.1 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.90, Under 1.38

Alperen Sengun · points 19.5 → 28 · 8.5 above the line · played 25.9 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.85, Under 1.40

Clint Capela · points 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 22.1 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.55, Under 1.48

Kevin Durant · points 26.5 → 20 · 6.5 below the line · played 39.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.80, Under 1.41

Robert Williams III · points 6.5 → 8 · 1.5 above the line · played 22.9 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.00, Under 1.36

Reed Sheppard · points 14.5 → 17 · 2.5 above the line · played 35.7 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.97

Jabari Smith Jr. · points 12.5 → no final stat available · Bovada odds: Over 3.10, Under 1.34

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

HOU vs POR · last 24 games · POR leads · HOU record 11–13 · average score 113.9–111.1 · HOU has won by 2.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

6 Mar · POR 99 at HOU 106HOU won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 61

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 15 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 21 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 36 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 92 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 95 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 96 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 99 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 101 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 107 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 10 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 149 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 149 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 149 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 150 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 151 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 186 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 303 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 308 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 313 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 315 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 320 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 322 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 330 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 342 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 347 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 366 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 560 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 562 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 566 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 569 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 572 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 580 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 590 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 703 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 596 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 601 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 605 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 617 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 638 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 641 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 644 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 650 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 655 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 664 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 680 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 813 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 936 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 936 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 960 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1000 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1006 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1008 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1013 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1062 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1066 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1077 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1078 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.