NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 1 · first game of the seriesupdated 22:43 UTC

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets

at Houston Rockets

No game odds posted yet

GSW 95 – HOU 85

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: GSW = Golden State Warriors, HOU = Houston Rockets.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

8 players checked · 5 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 3 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 11 players have performed clearly differently and 0 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Golden State Warriorsplaying HOU

Brandin Podziemski · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 14 actual

Draymond Green · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 4 actual

Stephen Curry · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 3 actual

Gary Payton II · Out · left knee inflammation (knee) · listed out, then played

points 6.5 → 7 actual

Jimmy Butler III · Out · right aclrepair/surgery · listed out, then played

assists 5.5 → 6 actual

Moses Moody · Out · left patellar tendon repair/surgery · listed out, then played

points 9.5 → 7 actual

Houston Rocketsplaying GSW

Alperen Sengun · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 35.5 → 36 actual

Amen Thompson · minutes unknown

points 14.5 → 8 actual

Fred VanVleet · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 22.5 → 18 actual

Jabari Smith Jr. · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 11 actual

Tari Eason · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 22:43 UTC

Who is out

Out Williams · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · GSW

Out II · left knee inflammation (knee) · GSW

Out III · right aclrepair/surgery · GSW

Out Porziņģis · not with team · GSW

Out Moody · left knee tendon repair/surgery · GSW

Richard · likely to play · left thumb ucltear (thumb) · GSW

Out Capela · right ankle sprain (ankle) · HOU

Out Phillips · two-way · HOU

Out Copeland · two-way · HOU

Out Adams · right soleus strain · HOU

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

GSW had 7 days off before this game · HOU had 7 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 221 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

11 other players with a posted line

Draymond Green · points 8.5 → 4 · 4.5 below the line · played 36.5 min · no final price

Stephen Curry · assists 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 39.6 min · no final price

Amen Thompson · points 14.5 → 8 · 6.5 below the line · played 33.4 min · no final price

Tari Eason · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 20.9 min · no final price

Moses Moody · points 9.5 → 7 · 2.5 below the line · played 27.9 min · no final price

Fred VanVleet · points + rebounds + assists 22.5 → 18 · 4.5 below the line · played 40.4 min · no final price

Jabari Smith Jr. · points 9.5 → 11 · 1.5 above the line · played 25.4 min · no final price

Brandin Podziemski · points 12.5 → 14 · 1.5 above the line · played 35.2 min · no final price

Jimmy Butler III · assists 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 42.2 min · no final price

Gary Payton II · points 6.5 → 7 · 0.5 above the line · played 15.8 min · no final price

Alperen Sengun · points + rebounds + assists 35.5 → 36 · 0.5 above the line · played 35.9 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

HOU vs GSW · last 30 games · GSW leads · HOU record 8–22 · average score 105.4–111.4 · HOU has lost by 5.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

5 Apr · HOU 117 at GSW 116HOU won

5 Mar · GSW 115 at HOU 113HOU lost

What each defense gives up per game

GSW gives up111.2 points · 41.5 rebounds · 26.7 assists · 34.0% from three-point range

HOU gives up106.0 points · 40.2 rebounds · 24.1 assists · 31.4% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSW gives up 111.2 points a game · 12th of 30 · league average 113.3−2.1 vs average

HOU gives up 106.0 points a game · 5th of 30 · league average 113.3−7.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had HOU expected to win by 1.5, expected total 213 (Mon 01:25 UTC) and had not changed it by Mon 01:25 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 66

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 55 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 101 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 107 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 108 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 109 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 109 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 109 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-12)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 130 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 170 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-19)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-13)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-11)ok 200 · 170 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-10)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-09)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-08)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-07)ok 200 · 171 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-06)ok 200 · 172 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 172 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 173 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 173 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 173 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 75 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 89 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 189 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 190 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 28 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 341 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 469 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 197 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 197 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 198 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 205 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 215 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 214 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 268 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 281 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 312 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 316 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 328 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 329 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 331 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 331 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 335 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 335 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 336 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 354 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 370 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 374 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 385 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 383 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 407 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 413 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 415 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 429 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 431 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 445 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.