NBA · Apr 23 gameAll props Full sheet

Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets

FinalGSW 94 – HOU 109Page updated 22:09 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 9 availability alerts

Out Williams · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · GSW

Out II · left knee inflammation (knee) · GSW

Out III · right aclrepair/surgery · GSW

Out Porziņģis · not with team · GSW

Out Moody · left knee tendon repair/surgery · GSW

Out Capela · right ankle sprain (ankle) · HOU

Out Phillips · two-way · HOU

Out Copeland · two-way · HOU

Out Adams · right soleus strain · HOU

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Williams · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · GSW

Out II · left knee inflammation (knee) · GSW

Out III · right aclrepair/surgery · GSW

Out Porziņģis · not with team · GSW

Out Moody · left knee tendon repair/surgery · GSW

Out Capela · right ankle sprain (ankle) · HOU

Out Phillips · two-way · HOU

Out Copeland · two-way · HOU

Out Adams · right soleus strain · HOU

Players and minutes12 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Golden State Warriors

Brandin Podziemski · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 0 actual

Draymond Green · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 8 actual

Stephen Curry · minutes unknown

points 25.5 → 20 actual

Gary Payton II · Out · left knee inflammation (knee) · listed out, then played

points 6.5 → 0 actual

Jimmy Butler III · Out · right aclrepair/surgery · listed out, then played

points + rebounds + assists 35.5 → 5 actual

Moses Moody · Out · left patellar tendon repair/surgery · listed out, then played

points 8.5 → 12 actual

Houston Rockets

Alperen Sengun · minutes unknown

points 20.5 → 17 actual

Amen Thompson · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 25.5 → 15 actual

Fred VanVleet · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 22.5 → 15 actual

Jabari Smith Jr. · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 5 actual

Tari Eason · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 14 actual

Steven Adams · Out · right soleus strain · listed out, then played

points + rebounds + assists 13.5 → 4 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

HOU expected to win by about 4 · both teams together expected to score about 205 points · odds to win: GSW 2.55, HOU 1.58

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference) · observed Thu 01:30 UTC

What could go wrong

updated 22:09 UTC

Who is out

Out Williams · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · GSW

Out II · left knee inflammation (knee) · GSW

Out III · right aclrepair/surgery · GSW

Out Porziņģis · not with team · GSW

Out Moody · left knee tendon repair/surgery · GSW

Richard · likely to play · left thumb ucltear (thumb) · GSW

Out Capela · right ankle sprain (ankle) · HOU

Out Phillips · two-way · HOU

Out Copeland · two-way · HOU

Out Adams · right soleus strain · HOU

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 223 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 4 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

12 other players with a posted line

Brandin Podziemski · points 12.5 → 0 · 12.5 below the line · played 14.1 min · no final price

Gary Payton II · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 12.1 min · no final price

Jimmy Butler III · points + rebounds + assists 35.5 → 5 · 30.5 below the line · played 7.9 min · no final price

Steven Adams · points + rebounds + assists 13.5 → 4 · 9.5 below the line · played 16.8 min · no final price

Tari Eason · points 8.5 → 14 · 5.5 above the line · played 24.3 min · no final price

Jabari Smith Jr. · points 9.5 → 5 · 4.5 below the line · played 23.9 min · no final price

Moses Moody · points 8.5 → 12 · 3.5 above the line · played 24.3 min · no final price

Amen Thompson · points + rebounds + assists 25.5 → 15 · 10.5 below the line · played 22.7 min · no final price

Fred VanVleet · points + rebounds + assists 22.5 → 15 · 7.5 below the line · played 42.2 min · no final price

Stephen Curry · points 25.5 → 20 · 5.5 below the line · played 37.3 min · no final price

Alperen Sengun · points 20.5 → 17 · 3.5 below the line · played 36.8 min · no final price

Draymond Green · points 7.5 → 8 · 0.5 above the line · played 30.6 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

HOU vs GSW · last 30 games · GSW leads · HOU record 8–22 · average score 105.4–111.4 · HOU has lost by 5.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

5 Apr · HOU 117 at GSW 116HOU won

5 Mar · GSW 115 at HOU 113HOU lost

What each defense gives up per game

GSW gives up111.2 points · 41.5 rebounds · 26.7 assists · 34.0% from three-point range

HOU gives up106.0 points · 40.2 rebounds · 24.1 assists · 31.4% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSW gives up 111.2 points a game · 12th of 30 · league average 113.3−2.1 vs average

HOU gives up 106.0 points a game · 5th of 30 · league average 113.3−7.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 69

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 84 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 85 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 86 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 87 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 88 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-12)ok 200 · 89 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-20)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-19)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-13)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-11)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-10)ok 200 · 132 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 160 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 223 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 286 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 286 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 286 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 314 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 313 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 318 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 319 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 328 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 381 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 383 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 386 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-09)ok 200 · 406 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 423 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 113 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 523 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 565 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 166 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 183 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 185 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 184 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 217 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 218 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 228 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 231 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 239 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 241 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 252 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 254 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 261 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 275 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 280 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 281 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 284 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 288 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 298 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 302 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 305 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 316 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 324 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 340 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 344 ms

odds player timeline (pra)failed 503 · 361 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 858 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 923 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.