NBA · Apr 28 gameAll props Full sheet

Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors

FinalHOU 106 – GSW 109Page updated 21:33 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 9 availability alerts

Out Capela · right ankle sprain (ankle) · HOU

Out Phillips · two-way · HOU

Out Copeland · two-way · HOU

Out Adams · right soleus strain · HOU

Out Williams · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · GSW

Out II · left knee inflammation (knee) · GSW

Out III · right aclrepair/surgery · GSW

Out Porziņģis · not with team · GSW

Out Moody · left knee tendon repair/surgery · GSW

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Capela · right ankle sprain (ankle) · HOU

Out Phillips · two-way · HOU

Out Copeland · two-way · HOU

Out Adams · right soleus strain · HOU

Out Williams · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · GSW

Out II · left knee inflammation (knee) · GSW

Out III · right aclrepair/surgery · GSW

Out Porziņģis · not with team · GSW

Out Moody · left knee tendon repair/surgery · GSW

Players and minutes12 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Houston Rockets

Alperen Sengun · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 31 actual

Amen Thompson · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 17 actual

Fred VanVleet · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 25 actual

Jabari Smith Jr. · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Tari Eason · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 3 actual

Steven Adams · Out · right soleus strain · listed out, then played

rebounds 5.5 → 7 actual

Golden State Warriors

Brandin Podziemski · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 26 actual

Draymond Green · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 2 actual

Stephen Curry · minutes unknown

points 27.5 → 17 actual

Gary Payton II · Out · left knee inflammation (knee) · listed out, then played

points 6.5 → 2 actual

Jimmy Butler III · Out · right aclrepair/surgery · listed out, then played

points + rebounds + assists 31.5 → 38 actual

Moses Moody · Out · left patellar tendon repair/surgery · listed out, then played

points 6.5 → 3 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

Game odds unavailable.

What could go wrong

updated 21:33 UTC

Who is out

Out Capela · right ankle sprain (ankle) · HOU

Out Phillips · two-way · HOU

Out Copeland · two-way · HOU

Out Adams · right soleus strain · HOU

Out Williams · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · GSW

Out II · left knee inflammation (knee) · GSW

Out III · right aclrepair/surgery · GSW

Out Porziņģis · not with team · GSW

Out Moody · left knee tendon repair/surgery · GSW

Richard · likely to play · left thumb ucltear (thumb) · GSW

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 249 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 5 of 8 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

12 other players with a posted line

Brandin Podziemski · points 12.5 → 26 · 13.5 above the line · played 40 min · no final price

Fred VanVleet · points 13.5 → 25 · 11.5 above the line · played 40.2 min · no final price

Gary Payton II · points 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 16.3 min · no final price

Alperen Sengun · points 18.5 → 31 · 12.5 above the line · played 42.3 min · no final price

Tari Eason · points 8.5 → 3 · 5.5 below the line · played 16.7 min · no final price

Draymond Green · assists 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 30.7 min · no final price

Moses Moody · points 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 11.7 min · no final price

Amen Thompson · points 11.5 → 17 · 5.5 above the line · played 31.2 min · no final price

Stephen Curry · points 27.5 → 17 · 10.5 below the line · played 39.1 min · no final price

Jabari Smith Jr. · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 22.4 min · no final price

Steven Adams · rebounds 5.5 → 7 · 1.5 above the line · played 26.4 min · no final price

Jimmy Butler III · points + rebounds + assists 31.5 → 38 · 6.5 above the line · played 40 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

GSW vs HOU · last 30 games · GSW leads · GSW record 22–8 · average score 111.4–105.4 · GSW has won by 5.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

5 Apr · HOU 117 at GSW 116GSW lost

5 Mar · GSW 115 at HOU 113GSW won

What each defense gives up per game

HOU gives up106.0 points · 40.2 rebounds · 24.1 assists · 31.4% from three-point range

GSW gives up111.2 points · 41.5 rebounds · 26.7 assists · 34.0% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

HOU gives up 106.0 points a game · 5th of 30 · league average 113.3−7.3 vs average

GSW gives up 111.2 points a game · 12th of 30 · league average 113.3−2.1 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 69

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 84 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 85 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 85 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 88 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 88 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 89 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-25)ok 200 · 91 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-26)ok 200 · 91 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-27)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 103 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 103 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-24)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-20)ok 200 · 106 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-19)ok 200 · 109 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 124 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 124 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 131 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 132 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 141 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 216 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 224 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 228 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 104 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 89 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 91 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 90 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 237 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 96 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 97 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 98 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 97 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 98 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 189 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 202 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 216 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 217 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 220 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 221 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 222 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 225 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 236 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 241 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 242 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 247 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 279 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 320 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 378 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 524 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 381 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 397 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 410 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 413 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 430 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 441 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 458 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 732 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.