NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 4 · GSW leads 2–1updated 09:05 UTC

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors

at Golden State Warriors

GSW expected to win by about 4 · both teams together expected to score about 204 points · odds to win: HOU 2.48, GSW 1.61

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Tue 01:55 UTC

HOU 106 – GSW 109

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: HOU = Houston Rockets, GSW = Golden State Warriors.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Houston Rocketsplaying GSW

Alperen Sengun · minutes unknown

points 18.5 → 31 actual

Amen Thompson · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 17 actual

Jabari Smith Jr. · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 6 actual

Steven Adams · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 7 actual

Tari Eason · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 3 actual

Golden State Warriorsplaying HOU

Brandin Podziemski · minutes unknown

points 12.5 → 26 actual

Draymond Green · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 2 actual

Gary Payton II · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 2 actual

Jimmy Butler III · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 31.5 → 38 actual

Moses Moody · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 3 actual

Quinten Post · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 13 actual

Stephen Curry · minutes unknown

points 27.5 → 17 actual

What could go wrong

updated 09:05 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

HOU had 148 days off before this game · GSW had 167 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 249 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

12 other players with a posted line

Quinten Post · points 5.5 → 13 · 7.5 above the line · played 19.7 min · no final price

Brandin Podziemski · points 12.5 → 26 · 13.5 above the line · played 40 min · no final price

Gary Payton II · points 6.5 → 2 · 4.5 below the line · played 16.3 min · no final price

Alperen Sengun · points 18.5 → 31 · 12.5 above the line · played 42.3 min · no final price

Tari Eason · points 8.5 → 3 · 5.5 below the line · played 16.7 min · no final price

Draymond Green · assists 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 30.7 min · no final price

Moses Moody · points 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 11.7 min · no final price

Amen Thompson · points 11.5 → 17 · 5.5 above the line · played 31.2 min · no final price

Stephen Curry · points 27.5 → 17 · 10.5 below the line · played 39.1 min · no final price

Jabari Smith Jr. · points 8.5 → 6 · 2.5 below the line · played 22.4 min · no final price

Steven Adams · rebounds 5.5 → 7 · 1.5 above the line · played 26.4 min · no final price

Jimmy Butler III · points + rebounds + assists 31.5 → 38 · 6.5 above the line · played 40 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

GSW vs HOU · last 30 games · GSW leads · GSW record 22–8 · average score 111.4–105.4 · GSW has won by 5.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

5 Apr · HOU 117 at GSW 116GSW lost

5 Mar · GSW 115 at HOU 113GSW won

What each defense gives up per game

HOU gives up109.4 points · 39.6 rebounds · 24.4 assists · 35.2% from three-point range

GSW gives up115.2 points · 44.2 rebounds · 27.1 assists · 36.0% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

HOU gives up 109.4 points a game · 5th of 30 · league average 115.3−5.9 vs average

GSW gives up 115.2 points a game · 15th of 30 · league average 115.3about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSW expected to win by 4, expected total 204 (Tue 01:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Tue 01:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 69

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 12 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-26)ok 200 · 15 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-27)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 18 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-14)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-25)ok 200 · 20 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-24)ok 200 · 21 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-20)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-16)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-17)ok 200 · 22 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-19)ok 200 · 23 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 25 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 27 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-15)ok 200 · 27 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 28 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 32 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 33 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 34 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 39 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 107 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 108 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 110 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 112 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 14 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 89 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 16 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 502 · 209 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 93 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 171 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 187 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 188 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 204 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 208 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 210 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 211 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 214 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 216 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 245 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 258 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 266 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 278 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 285 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 289 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 309 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 318 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 459 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 355 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 464 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 465 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 505 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 506 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 507 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 515 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 515 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 539 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 583 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 689 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 746 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.