NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 6 · GSW leads 3–2updated 09:06 UTC

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors

at Golden State Warriors

GSW expected to win by about 5.5 · both teams together expected to score about 208.5 points · odds to win: HOU 3.08, GSW 1.42

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Sat 01:00 UTC

HOU 115 – GSW 107

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer for the same line is the only thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money; player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that, measured over many past bets, made money.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line this season, for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate, typically off by about 4 minutes), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: HOU = Houston Rockets, GSW = Golden State Warriors.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

Picks for this game are not posted yet. The players below are up to date.

Why the better price matters

In our past tests, simply taking the highest price offered for a line earned more than any of our own forecasts did.

In that test (25 Aug 2026), taking the best price returned about 2.8 more for every 100 staked than the price we posted did.

The players

12 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of this season's games in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 4 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Houston Rocketsplaying GSW

Alperen Sengun · minutes unknown

points 21.5 → 21 actual

Amen Thompson · minutes unknown

points 13.5 → 14 actual

Jabari Smith Jr. · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 8 actual

Steven Adams · minutes unknown

points 4.5 → 17 actual

Tari Eason · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 8 actual

Golden State Warriorsplaying HOU

Brandin Podziemski · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 3 actual

Draymond Green · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 8 actual

Gary Payton II · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 5 actual

Jimmy Butler III · minutes unknown

points 22.5 → 27 actual

Moses Moody · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 13 actual

Quinten Post · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 5 actual

Stephen Curry · minutes unknown

points 25.5 → 29 actual

What could go wrong

updated 09:06 UTC

Who is out

Nobody is listed as injured on either team.

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Our check: these minute estimates (RotoWire) are typically off by about 4 minutes.

Rest

HOU had 148 days off before this game · GSW had 167 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 273 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

12 other players with a posted line

Steven Adams · points 4.5 → 17 · 12.5 above the line · played 31 min · no final price

Moses Moody · points 6.5 → 13 · 6.5 above the line · played 22.1 min · no final price

Tari Eason · points 6.5 → 8 · 1.5 above the line · played 16.1 min · no final price

Quinten Post · points 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 17.8 min · no final price

Jimmy Butler III · points 22.5 → 27 · 4.5 above the line · played 42.1 min · no final price

Brandin Podziemski · assists 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 28.8 min · no final price

Stephen Curry · points 25.5 → 29 · 3.5 above the line · played 41.9 min · no final price

Gary Payton II · points 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 19.8 min · no final price

Jabari Smith Jr. · points 7.5 → 8 · 0.5 above the line · played 18.6 min · no final price

Draymond Green · points 7.5 → 8 · 0.5 above the line · played 37 min · no final price

Amen Thompson · points 13.5 → 14 · 0.5 above the line · played 35.5 min · no final price

Alperen Sengun · points 21.5 → 21 · 0.5 below the line · played 37.1 min · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

GSW vs HOU · last 30 games · GSW leads · GSW record 22–8 · average score 111.4–105.4 · GSW has won by 5.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

5 Apr · HOU 117 at GSW 116GSW lost

5 Mar · GSW 115 at HOU 113GSW won

What each defense gives up per game

HOU gives up109.4 points · 39.6 rebounds · 24.4 assists · 35.2% from three-point range

GSW gives up115.2 points · 44.2 rebounds · 27.1 assists · 36.0% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

HOU gives up 109.4 points a game · 5th of 30 · league average 115.3−5.9 vs average

GSW gives up 115.2 points a game · 15th of 30 · league average 115.3about league average

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had GSW expected to win by 5.5, expected total 208.5 (Sat 01:00 UTC) and had not changed it by Sat 01:00 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 69

sds games/date (2025-04-29)ok 200 · 81 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-26)ok 200 · 82 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 82 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 83 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-01)ok 200 · 85 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-25)ok 200 · 85 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 86 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-30)ok 200 · 87 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 88 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 91 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-27)ok 200 · 93 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-24)ok 200 · 94 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-28)ok 200 · 95 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-20)ok 200 · 166 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-19)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-18)ok 200 · 169 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 172 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 174 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 176 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 177 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 178 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 179 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 180 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 234 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 236 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 33 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 346 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 365 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 228 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 502 · 509 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 603 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 183 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 305 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 365 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 367 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 992 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 484 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 490 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 603 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 606 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 622 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 625 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 626 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 654 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 665 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 668 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 693 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 700 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 709 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 715 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 722 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 731 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 741 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 748 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 793 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 816 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1224 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1288 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1294 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1326 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1333 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1371 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1504 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1563 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1595 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1596 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1604 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1614 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.