NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 7 · series tied 3–3updated 20:45 UTC

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets

at Houston Rockets

No game odds posted yet

GSW 103 – HOU 89

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: GSW = Golden State Warriors, HOU = Houston Rockets.

Saved player research

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

8 players checked · 4 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 4 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 12 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Golden State Warriorsplaying HOU

Brandin Podziemski · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 3 actual

Draymond Green · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 16 actual

Stephen Curry · minutes unknown

points 27.5 → 22 actual

Gary Payton II · Out · left knee inflammation (knee)

points 6.5 → no final stat available

Jimmy Butler III · Out · right aclrepair/surgery · listed out, then played

rebounds 6.5 → 8 actual

Moses Moody · Out · left patellar tendon repair/surgery · listed out, then played

points 8.5 → 0 actual

Houston Rocketsplaying GSW

Alperen Sengun · minutes unknown

rebounds 10.5 → 14 actual

Amen Thompson · minutes unknown

rebounds 7.5 → 9 actual

Fred VanVleet · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 3 actual

Jabari Smith Jr. · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 3 actual

Tari Eason · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 5 actual

Steven Adams · Out · right soleus strain · listed out, then played

points 7.5 → 3 actual

Original forecast · corrected actuals

What did we expect, and what happened?

This reads the saved pre-tip model. Today’s rosters, injuries and model changes do not rewrite it.

Reading the immutable pre-tip record…

What could go wrong

updated 20:45 UTC

Who is out

Out Williams · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · GSW

Out II · left knee inflammation (knee) · GSW

Out III · right aclrepair/surgery · GSW

Out Porziņģis · not with team · GSW

Out Moody · left knee tendon repair/surgery · GSW

Richard · likely to play · left thumb ucltear (thumb) · GSW

Out Capela · right ankle sprain (ankle) · HOU

Out Phillips · two-way · HOU

Out Copeland · two-way · HOU

Out Adams · right soleus strain · HOU

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 261 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

12 other players with a posted line

Moses Moody · points 8.5 → 0 · 8.5 below the line · played 10.8 min · no final price

Draymond Green · points 8.5 → 16 · 7.5 above the line · played 39.9 min · no final price

Steven Adams · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 25.7 min · no final price

Jabari Smith Jr. · points 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 12.1 min · no final price

Brandin Podziemski · rebounds 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 39.7 min · no final price

Alperen Sengun · rebounds 10.5 → 14 · 3.5 above the line · played 39.9 min · no final price

Fred VanVleet · assists 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 43.9 min · no final price

Jimmy Butler III · rebounds 6.5 → 8 · 1.5 above the line · played 44.7 min · no final price

Tari Eason · points 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 15.9 min · no final price

Stephen Curry · points 27.5 → 22 · 5.5 below the line · played 45.5 min · no final price

Amen Thompson · rebounds 7.5 → 9 · 1.5 above the line · played 37.2 min · no final price

Gary Payton II · points 6.5 → no final stat available · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

HOU vs GSW · last 30 games · GSW leads · HOU record 8–22 · average score 105.4–111.4 · HOU has lost by 5.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

5 Apr · HOU 117 at GSW 116HOU won

5 Mar · GSW 115 at HOU 113HOU lost

What each defense gives up per game

GSW gives up111.2 points · 41.5 rebounds · 26.7 assists · 34.0% from three-point range

HOU gives up106.0 points · 40.2 rebounds · 24.1 assists · 31.4% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSW gives up 111.2 points a game · 12th of 30 · league average 113.3−2.1 vs average

HOU gives up 106.0 points a game · 5th of 30 · league average 113.3−7.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 69

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 113 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 144 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 151 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 151 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-03)ok 200 · 162 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-02)ok 200 · 163 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 235 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 243 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-01)ok 200 · 263 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-29)ok 200 · 263 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-28)ok 200 · 264 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-27)ok 200 · 264 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-30)ok 200 · 264 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-26)ok 200 · 264 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-25)ok 200 · 265 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 295 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-20)ok 200 · 295 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 295 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 300 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-24)ok 200 · 302 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 302 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 301 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 305 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 306 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 307 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 307 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 174 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 26 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 327 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 343 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 445 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 107 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 117 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 118 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 119 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 120 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 121 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 123 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 138 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 141 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 567 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 265 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 267 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 278 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 285 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 290 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 291 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 299 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 303 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 308 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 314 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 319 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 364 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 374 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 375 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 376 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 378 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 380 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 380 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 382 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 382 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 383 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.