02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

03

The players

16 players checked · 6 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 16 players have performed clearly differently and 2 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Portland Trail Blazersplaying SAS

Deni Avdija · minutes unknown
assists 6.5 → 5 actual
Donovan Clingan · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual
Jrue Holiday · minutes unknown
rebounds 4.5 → 4 actual
Robert Williams III · minutes unknown
points 4.5 → 11 actual
Scoot Henderson · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual
Shaedon Sharpe · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual
Toumani Camara · minutes unknown
3-pointers 2.5 → 2 actual

San Antonio Spursplaying POR

De'Aaron Fox · minutes unknown
assists 5.5 → 8 actual
Devin Vassell · minutes unknown
rebounds 3.5 → 3 actual
Dylan Harper · minutes unknown
assists 3.5 → 2 actual
Harrison Barnes · minutes unknown
points 4.5 → 2 actual
Julian Champagnie · minutes unknown
rebounds 5.5 → 5 actual
Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual
Luke Kornet · minutes unknown
rebounds 3.5 → 6 actual
Stephon Castle · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual
Victor Wembanyama · minutes unknown
3-pointers 2.5 → 5 actual
04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

POR had 7 days off before this game · SAS had 7 days off before this game.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 298 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

In 3 of 6 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.
FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below
16 other players with a posted line
Robert Williams III · points 4.5 → 11 · 6.5 above the line · played 16.6 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.81, Under 1.96
Donovan Clingan · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 21.7 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.40, Under 1.54
Shaedon Sharpe · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 21.9 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.75, Under 1.43
Victor Wembanyama · 3-pointers 2.5 → 5 · 2.5 above the line · played 32.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.67
Luke Kornet · rebounds 3.5 → 6 · 2.5 above the line · played 14.3 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.00
Harrison Barnes · points 4.5 → 2 · 2.5 below the line · played 11.5 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.71, Under 2.05
De'Aaron Fox · assists 5.5 → 8 · 2.5 above the line · played 34.1 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.71, Under 2.05
Dylan Harper · assists 3.5 → 2 · 1.5 below the line · played 23.3 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.71
Scoot Henderson · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 27.1 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.67
Keldon Johnson · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 20.1 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.65, Under 1.44
Stephon Castle · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 32.7 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.63
Deni Avdija · assists 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 39.5 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87
Toumani Camara · 3-pointers 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 31.9 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.74
Devin Vassell · rebounds 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 34.3 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.80
Jrue Holiday · rebounds 4.5 → 4 · 0.5 below the line · played 35.6 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91
Julian Champagnie · rebounds 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 30 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.71

Sign in to see your predictions checked

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

SAS vs POR · last 28 games · SAS leads · SAS record 18–10 · average score 116.1–109.3 · SAS has won by 6.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Apr · POR 95 at SAS 114SAS won
26 Apr · SAS 114 at POR 93SAS won
24 Apr · SAS 120 at POR 108SAS won
21 Apr · POR 106 at SAS 103SAS lost
19 Apr · POR 98 at SAS 111SAS won
8 Apr · POR 101 at SAS 112SAS won
What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 81
sds games/date (2026-04-18)ok 200 · 173 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-17)ok 200 · 174 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-16)ok 200 · 175 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-15)ok 200 · 176 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-14)ok 200 · 176 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-13)ok 200 · 177 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-12)ok 200 · 178 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-11)ok 200 · 179 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-10)ok 200 · 180 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-09)ok 200 · 182 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-08)ok 200 · 183 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-07)ok 200 · 184 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-06)ok 200 · 185 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-05)ok 200 · 186 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 196 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 210 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 213 ms
grading verdict/boardok 200 · 244 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 361 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 370 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 373 ms
sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 372 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 404 ms
sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 410 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 417 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 431 ms
sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 7 ms
sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 9 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 479 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 323 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 98 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 108 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 115 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 119 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 124 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 125 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 148 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 150 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 154 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 157 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 164 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 168 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 183 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 654 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 223 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 227 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 229 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 233 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 237 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 240 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 243 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 248 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 252 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 246 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 252 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 259 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 344 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 362 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 429 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 460 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 909 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 472 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 482 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 543 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 996 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1047 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1047 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1050 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1051 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1051 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1266 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1268 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1270 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1314 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1317 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1316 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1308 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1319 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1319 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1320 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1321 ms
Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.