NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 2 · SAS leads 1–0updated 11:27 UTC

Portland Trail Blazers vs San Antonio Spurs

at San Antonio Spurs

SAS expected to win by about 11 · both teams together expected to score about 220.5 points · odds to win: POR 5.56, SAS 1.17

Game odds from Pinnacle (the bookmaker we use as the reference), Tue 23:55 UTC

POR 106 – SAS 103

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: POR = Portland Trail Blazers, SAS = San Antonio Spurs.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

16 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 0 of 16 players have performed clearly differently and 6 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Portland Trail Blazersplaying SAS

Deni Avdija · minutes unknown

assists 6.5 → 3 actual

Donovan Clingan · minutes unknown

rebounds 9.5 → 10 actual

Jrue Holiday · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 5 actual

Robert Williams III · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 11 actual

Scoot Henderson · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 5 actual

Shaedon Sharpe · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Toumani Camara · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 10 actual

San Antonio Spursplaying POR

De'Aaron Fox · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual

Devin Vassell · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 0 actual

Dylan Harper · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 10 actual

Harrison Barnes · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 5.5 → 5 actual

Julian Champagnie · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 9 actual

Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 7 actual

Luke Kornet · minutes unknown

points 3.5 → 10 actual

Stephon Castle · minutes unknown

assists 7.5 → 5 actual

Victor Wembanyama · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 0 actual

What could go wrong

updated 11:27 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 281 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 4 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

16 other players with a posted line

Scoot Henderson · 3-pointers 1.5 → 5 · 3.5 above the line · played 38 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.15, Under 1.67

Luke Kornet · points 3.5 → 10 · 6.5 above the line · played 27.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.55, Under 1.48

Robert Williams III · points 5.5 → 11 · 5.5 above the line · played 23.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.00, Under 1.36

Devin Vassell · 3-pointers 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 33.9 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.25, Under 1.61

Victor Wembanyama · 3-pointers 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 11.7 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.35, Under 1.56

Deni Avdija · assists 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 29.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.70, Under 1.43

Shaedon Sharpe · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 12.7 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.50, Under 1.50

De'Aaron Fox · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 33.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.05, Under 1.74

Stephon Castle · assists 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 37.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.90, Under 1.38

Keldon Johnson · points 9.5 → 7 · 2.5 below the line · played 17.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.05, Under 1.36

Dylan Harper · points 8.5 → 10 · 1.5 above the line · played 23.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.00, Under 1.36

Jrue Holiday · rebounds 4.5 → 5 · 0.5 above the line · played 39 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.10, Under 1.34

Harrison Barnes · points + rebounds + assists 5.5 → 5 · 0.5 below the line · played 15.2 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.74, Under 2.00

Julian Champagnie · points 8.5 → 9 · 0.5 above the line · played 26.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.05, Under 1.36

Donovan Clingan · rebounds 9.5 → 10 · 0.5 above the line · played 23.9 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.65, Under 1.45

Toumani Camara · points 10.5 → 10 · 0.5 below the line · played 34.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.80, Under 1.41

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

SAS vs POR · last 28 games · SAS leads · SAS record 18–10 · average score 116.1–109.3 · SAS has won by 6.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Apr · POR 95 at SAS 114SAS won

26 Apr · SAS 114 at POR 93SAS won

24 Apr · SAS 120 at POR 108SAS won

21 Apr · POR 106 at SAS 103SAS lost

19 Apr · POR 98 at SAS 111SAS won

8 Apr · POR 101 at SAS 112SAS won

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Pinnacle first had SAS expected to win by 11, expected total 220.5 (Tue 23:55 UTC) and had not changed it by Tue 23:55 UTC.

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 81

sds games/date (2026-04-19)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-18)ok 200 · 121 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-15)ok 200 · 122 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-16)ok 200 · 123 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-20)ok 200 · 124 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-17)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-14)ok 200 · 125 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-13)ok 200 · 162 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-12)ok 200 · 163 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-11)ok 200 · 164 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-10)ok 200 · 166 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-09)ok 200 · 167 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-08)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-07)ok 200 · 169 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 172 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 163 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 164 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 216 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 219 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 221 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 223 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 225 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 11 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 13 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 251 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 256 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 256 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 257 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 104 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 298 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 583 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1984 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 2227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 76 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 119 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 122 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 146 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 151 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 195 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 199 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 206 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 209 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 212 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 220 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 229 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 285 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 296 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 381 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 384 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 385 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 387 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 391 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 397 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 400 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 404 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 419 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 438 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 443 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 448 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 451 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 468 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 503 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 576 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 709 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 711 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1027 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1029 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1030 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1031 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1029 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1185 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1200 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1204 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1203 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1203 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1204 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1204 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1246 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1301 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.