NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 3 · series tied 1–1updated 11:34 UTC

San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers

at Portland Trail Blazers

SAS expected to win by about 2.5 · both teams together expected to score about 220.5 points · odds to win: SAS 1.59, POR 2.45

Game odds from 10 bookmakers, Sat 00:38 UTC

SAS 120 – POR 108

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: SAS = San Antonio Spurs, POR = Portland Trail Blazers.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

17 players checked · 9 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 2 of 17 players have performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

San Antonio Spursplaying POR

Carter Bryant · minutes unknown

points + rebounds + assists 9.5 → 13 actual

De'Aaron Fox · minutes unknown

assists 5.5 → 6 actual

Devin Vassell · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 7 actual

Dylan Harper · minutes unknown

assists 3.5 → 3 actual

Harrison Barnes · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 0 actual

Julian Champagnie · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 2 actual

Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown

points 11.5 → 5 actual

Luke Kornet · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 14 actual

Stephon Castle · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

Victor Wembanyama · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → no final stat available

Portland Trail Blazersplaying SAS

Deni Avdija · minutes unknown

points 23.5 → 19 actual

Donovan Clingan · minutes unknown

points 9.5 → 7 actual

Jrue Holiday · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 29 actual

Robert Williams III · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 11 actual

Scoot Henderson · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 5 actual

Shaedon Sharpe · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 0 actual

Toumani Camara · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 0 actual

What could go wrong

updated 11:34 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 378 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 2 of 9 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

17 other players with a posted line

Scoot Henderson · 3-pointers 1.5 → 5 · 3.5 above the line · played 36.1 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.83

Harrison Barnes · points 6.5 → 0 · 6.5 below the line · played 6.4 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.81

Stephon Castle · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 34.1 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.69

Shaedon Sharpe · 3-pointers 1.5 → 0 · 1.5 below the line · played 13.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.60, Under 1.47

Toumani Camara · 3-pointers 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 33.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.35, Under 1.56

Jrue Holiday · points 15.5 → 29 · 13.5 above the line · played 40.5 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.80

Robert Williams III · points 6.5 → 11 · 4.5 above the line · played 25 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.78

Luke Kornet · points 8.5 → 14 · 5.5 above the line · played 29.9 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.80

Keldon Johnson · points 11.5 → 5 · 6.5 below the line · played 20.9 min · FanDuel odds: Over 2.04, Under 1.76

Devin Vassell · rebounds 4.5 → 7 · 2.5 above the line · played 32.5 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.96, Under 1.82

Carter Bryant · points + rebounds + assists 9.5 → 13 · 3.5 above the line · played 22.6 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.80

Donovan Clingan · points 9.5 → 7 · 2.5 below the line · played 20 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.98

Julian Champagnie · 3-pointers 2.5 → 2 · 0.5 below the line · played 27.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.35, Under 1.56

Deni Avdija · points 23.5 → 19 · 4.5 below the line · played 36.7 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.98

Dylan Harper · assists 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 29.8 min · FanDuel odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.80

De'Aaron Fox · assists 5.5 → 6 · 0.5 above the line · played 36.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.40, Under 1.54

Victor Wembanyama · 3-pointers 1.5 → no final stat available · BetMGM odds: Over 1.65, Under 2.15

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

POR vs SAS · last 28 games · SAS leads · POR record 10–18 · average score 109.3–116.1 · POR has lost by 6.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Apr · POR 95 at SAS 114POR lost

26 Apr · SAS 114 at POR 93POR lost

24 Apr · SAS 120 at POR 108POR lost

21 Apr · POR 106 at SAS 103POR won

19 Apr · POR 98 at SAS 111POR lost

8 Apr · POR 101 at SAS 112POR lost

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

Bovada first had SAS expected to win by 2, expected total 220 (Thu 18:06 UTC) and later SAS expected to win by 3.5, expected total 220 (Sat 00:38 UTC).

The odds at the top of the page are the latest we have, from every bookmaker on file; this is one bookmaker's own history.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 84

sds games/date (2026-04-23)ok 200 · 232 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-22)ok 200 · 238 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-21)ok 200 · 245 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-20)ok 200 · 255 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-19)ok 200 · 258 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-18)ok 200 · 262 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-17)ok 200 · 267 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-16)ok 200 · 273 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-15)ok 200 · 276 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-14)ok 200 · 281 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-13)ok 200 · 284 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-12)ok 200 · 289 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-11)ok 200 · 291 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-10)ok 200 · 298 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 305 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 336 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 342 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 519 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 525 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 544 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 552 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 554 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 569 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 574 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 575 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 579 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 584 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 315 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 1063 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1213 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1637 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 71 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 81 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 90 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 92 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 105 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 106 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 120 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 127 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 140 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 142 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 144 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 150 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 174 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 176 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 227 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 232 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 238 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 250 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 261 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 287 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 288 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 325 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 338 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 345 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 351 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 393 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 396 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 397 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 400 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 405 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 410 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 421 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 615 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 645 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 660 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1337 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1341 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1338 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1343 ms

odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1369 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1399 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 2200 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2200 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2205 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 2204 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2204 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 2205 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 2205 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 2208 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 2209 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 2216 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.