NBA · Final · Playoffs round 1, game 4 · SAS leads 2–1updated 11:34 UTC

San Antonio Spurs vs Portland Trail Blazers

at Portland Trail Blazers

No game odds posted yet

SAS 114 – POR 93

Final

We had no picks in this game; every posted line is still scored below.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Explore every player and prop

How to read this page

A pick is a player line, for example Under 13.5 points, that we published before the game together with the price we found for it. We do not take bets.
Odds are shown in the decimal format: 1.93 means you get back 1.93 for every 1 staked, so a higher number pays more. The American format (−108 means risk 108 to win 100; +111 means risk 100 to win 111) appears only in the Data log at the bottom of the page.
'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; 'better' is a higher price for the same line at another bookmaker. Taking the better price is the one thing on this page that made money over many past bets; that was measured on WNBA bets, and NBA has not been measured yet.
'Market puts Under at 48.5%' is the chance implied by all bookmakers' prices together, with their built-in margin removed. Pinnacle is a bookmaker whose prices are widely treated as the most accurate reference, so it is the one we compare against.
A player's rate is how often that player has gone over the line in every game we hold since the 2019-20 season (not only this season), for example over in 41 of 78 games (52.6%), with a likely range such as 32–52%: fewer games means a wider range, and under 10 games we show no rate word at all.
'Past record stronger than the price' means the whole likely range sits above the chance the bookmakers' price implies; 'weaker' means below; 'agrees with the price' means the price sits inside the range, which is the usual case. None of these is a tip.
'Not measurable' is the usual honest answer: too few games to tell a real difference from chance.
'What could go wrong' lists the facts that can change a line: who is out, whether the starting lineup is confirmed, expected playing time (RotoWire's estimate), rest, and how many bookmakers price each line.
After the final, every pick is checked against the official stats and compared with the last price before the game started, the market's most informed price; getting a better price than that is the fairest test of a pick, whether or not it won. A tie means the player landed exactly on the line and the stake is returned; lines ending in .5 cannot tie.
Results are given for every 1 staked: 'would have returned +0.93' means a stake of 1 would have come back with 0.93 in profit. We do not stake anything; the record is what a stake of 1 on each pick would have done. Our record counts a smaller stake when the price advantage was small.
S beside a name marks an expected starter. Times are shown in your device's time zone; our data is recorded in US Eastern Time (ET). Team codes are the league's three-letter abbreviations.
'Your prediction' lets you pick Over or Under on any line before the game starts; we check your predictions the same way and keep your record, and one game of results proves nothing.
Team codes on this page: SAS = San Antonio Spurs, POR = Portland Trail Blazers.

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

The players

15 players checked · 7 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 15 players has performed clearly differently and 3 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

San Antonio Spursplaying POR

De'Aaron Fox · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 4 actual

Devin Vassell · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 1 actual

Dylan Harper · minutes unknown

points 10.5 → 3 actual

Julian Champagnie · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 3 actual

Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 1 actual

Luke Kornet · minutes unknown

points 5.5 → 2 actual

Stephon Castle · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 3 actual

Victor Wembanyama · minutes unknown

3-pointers 2.5 → 1 actual

Portland Trail Blazersplaying SAS

Deni Avdija · minutes unknown

assists 6.5 → 3 actual

Donovan Clingan · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 5 actual

Jrue Holiday · minutes unknown

rebounds 4.5 → 6 actual

Robert Williams III · minutes unknown

points 7.5 → 4 actual

Scoot Henderson · minutes unknown

points 15.5 → 0 actual

Shaedon Sharpe · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 8 actual

Toumani Camara · minutes unknown

3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual

What could go wrong

updated 11:34 UTC

Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 269 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

What happened

In 3 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

15 other players with a posted line

De'Aaron Fox · 3-pointers 1.5 → 4 · 2.5 above the line · played 38.8 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.80

Stephon Castle · 3-pointers 1.5 → 3 · 1.5 above the line · played 26.3 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.38, Under 1.53

Scoot Henderson · points 15.5 → 0 · 15.5 below the line · played 27.1 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.85

Keldon Johnson · rebounds 4.5 → 1 · 3.5 below the line · played 17.3 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.10, Under 1.67

Dylan Harper · points 10.5 → 3 · 7.5 below the line · played 25 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.83

Luke Kornet · points 5.5 → 2 · 3.5 below the line · played 12.2 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.82, Under 1.95

Devin Vassell · 3-pointers 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 34.9 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.45, Under 1.50

Victor Wembanyama · 3-pointers 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 34.3 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.30, Under 1.57

Deni Avdija · assists 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 36.9 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.90, Under 1.85

Robert Williams III · points 7.5 → 4 · 3.5 below the line · played 26.4 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.87

Donovan Clingan · points 8.5 → 5 · 3.5 below the line · played 14.2 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.91

Julian Champagnie · rebounds 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 28.9 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.20, Under 1.63

Jrue Holiday · rebounds 4.5 → 6 · 1.5 above the line · played 37 min · BetMGM odds: Over 2.00, Under 1.74

Toumani Camara · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 31.5 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.54, Under 2.35

Shaedon Sharpe · points 8.5 → 8 · 0.5 below the line · played 12.7 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.75, Under 1.97

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context

Head to head

POR vs SAS · last 28 games · SAS leads · POR record 10–18 · average score 109.3–116.1 · POR has lost by 6.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Apr · POR 95 at SAS 114POR lost

26 Apr · SAS 114 at POR 93POR lost

24 Apr · SAS 120 at POR 108POR lost

21 Apr · POR 106 at SAS 103POR won

19 Apr · POR 98 at SAS 111POR lost

8 Apr · POR 101 at SAS 112POR lost

What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 78

sds games/date (2026-04-25)ok 200 · 130 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-24)ok 200 · 133 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-23)ok 200 · 138 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-22)ok 200 · 139 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-21)ok 200 · 147 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-20)ok 200 · 152 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-19)ok 200 · 156 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-18)ok 200 · 159 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-17)ok 200 · 165 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-16)ok 200 · 167 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-15)ok 200 · 168 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-14)ok 200 · 170 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 255 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 265 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 280 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-13)ok 200 · 293 ms

sds games/date (2026-04-12)ok 200 · 296 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 428 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 436 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 440 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 442 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 460 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 465 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 16 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 38 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 509 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 523 ms

sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 528 ms

sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 531 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 279 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 883 ms

odds game timelineok 200 · 1169 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1252 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 50 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 53 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 63 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 64 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 70 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 78 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 81 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 83 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 92 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 111 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 113 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 156 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 163 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 182 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 196 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 213 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 289 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 291 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 309 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 315 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 329 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 348 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 352 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 355 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 360 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 366 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 371 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 500 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 505 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 538 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 588 ms

odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 864 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 865 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 866 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 871 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 875 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 877 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 878 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1174 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1176 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1177 ms

odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1178 ms

odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1178 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1191 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.