02

Picks and prices

Odds of at least 1.70 only · highest odds first · results checked

A line is the number a bookmaker sets, e.g. 13.5 points; Over means more than it, Under fewer. Odds 1.93 pay 1.93 for every 1 staked. 'Posted at' is the price we found when we published the pick; after the game it is compared with the last price before the start.

We had no picks in this game.

Why the better price matters

A higher price for the same line pays more whenever the pick wins; that is arithmetic, not a forecast.

What taking the best price is worth has been measured only on WNBA lines (25 Aug 2026); NBA has not been measured yet.

03

The players

15 players checked · 10 whose past record points the other way from the bookmakers' price · 0 out · 0 with too few games

Rate: the share of every game we hold for the player since the 2019-20 season (not only this season) in which the player finished above tonight's line. S beside a name marks an expected starter.

Against this opponent, 1 of 15 players has performed clearly differently and 5 show a slight hint · No starting lineup yet; showing every player with a line · playoff series: too few games to measure a difference

Context only A player's rate describes the past; it is not a tip and has not been tested as one. Expected minutes come from RotoWire, a lineup news service.

Sign in to see each player's rate The numbers below (for example 15.5 points) are the lines the bookmakers actually posted.

Portland Trail Blazersplaying SAS

Deni Avdija · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual
Donovan Clingan · minutes unknown
points 6.5 → 10 actual
Jrue Holiday · minutes unknown
3-pointers 2.5 → 1 actual
Robert Williams III · minutes unknown
rebounds 8.5 → 7 actual
Scoot Henderson · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 1 actual
Shaedon Sharpe · minutes unknown
points 8.5 → 5 actual
Toumani Camara · minutes unknown
points 9.5 → 7 actual

San Antonio Spursplaying POR

De'Aaron Fox · minutes unknown
3-pointers 1.5 → 2 actual
Devin Vassell · minutes unknown
3-pointers 2.5 → 0 actual
Dylan Harper · minutes unknown
points 9.5 → 17 actual
Julian Champagnie · minutes unknown
rebounds 4.5 → 7 actual
Keldon Johnson · minutes unknown
points 8.5 → 7 actual
Luke Kornet · minutes unknown
points + rebounds + assists 9.5 → 11 actual
Stephon Castle · minutes unknown
assists 7.5 → 5 actual
Victor Wembanyama · minutes unknown
assists 3.5 → 3 actual
04

What could go wrong

updated
Who is out

Injury report not checked yet: none has reached us for this game, so an empty list here does not mean everyone plays.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates yet.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 288 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

05

What happened

In 6 of 10 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.
FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below
15 other players with a posted line
Devin Vassell · 3-pointers 2.5 → 0 · 2.5 below the line · played 33.8 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.45, Under 1.53
Dylan Harper · points 9.5 → 17 · 7.5 above the line · played 25.7 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.87, Under 1.90
Jrue Holiday · 3-pointers 2.5 → 1 · 1.5 below the line · played 39.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.95, Under 1.80
Julian Champagnie · rebounds 4.5 → 7 · 2.5 above the line · played 30 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.60, Under 1.47
Donovan Clingan · points 6.5 → 10 · 3.5 above the line · played 27.2 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.90, Under 1.38
Shaedon Sharpe · points 8.5 → 5 · 3.5 below the line · played 6.1 min · DraftKings odds: Over 1.98, Under 1.80
Deni Avdija · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 31.5 min · Bovada odds: Over 1.77, Under 2.00
Scoot Henderson · 3-pointers 1.5 → 1 · 0.5 below the line · played 16.9 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.85, Under 1.40
De'Aaron Fox · 3-pointers 1.5 → 2 · 0.5 above the line · played 33.9 min · BetOnline.ag odds: Over 1.83, Under 1.93
Stephon Castle · assists 7.5 → 5 · 2.5 below the line · played 33 min · Bovada odds: Over 3.00, Under 1.36
Toumani Camara · points 9.5 → 7 · 2.5 below the line · played 33.4 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.65, Under 1.45
Robert Williams III · rebounds 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 16.9 min · BetRivers odds: Over 1.91, Under 1.81
Keldon Johnson · points 8.5 → 7 · 1.5 below the line · played 18 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.70, Under 1.43
Luke Kornet · points + rebounds + assists 9.5 → 11 · 1.5 above the line · played 13.2 min · BetMGM odds: Over 1.80, Under 1.95
Victor Wembanyama · assists 3.5 → 3 · 0.5 below the line · played 33.6 min · Bovada odds: Over 2.40, Under 1.54

Sign in to see your predictions checked

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

More context
Head to head

SAS vs POR · last 28 games · SAS leads · SAS record 18–10 · average score 116.1–109.3 · SAS has won by 6.8 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

28 Apr · POR 95 at SAS 114SAS won
26 Apr · SAS 114 at POR 93SAS won
24 Apr · SAS 120 at POR 108SAS won
21 Apr · POR 106 at SAS 103SAS lost
19 Apr · POR 98 at SAS 111SAS won
8 Apr · POR 101 at SAS 112SAS won
What each defense gives up per game

Team defense unavailable right now.

Defense by position
How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

Defense by position unavailable right now.

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 78
sds games/date (2026-04-23)ok 200 · 240 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-18)ok 200 · 255 ms
sds history (h2h)ok · 272 ms
sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 274 ms
sds games/{id}ok 200 · 441 ms
sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 440 ms
sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 447 ms
sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 450 ms
sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 450 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-26)ok 200 · 460 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-27)ok 200 · 464 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-25)ok 200 · 465 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-19)ok 200 · 467 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-24)ok 200 · 469 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-20)ok 200 · 473 ms
sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 38 ms
sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 39 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-21)ok 200 · 486 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-15)ok 200 · 488 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-16)ok 200 · 489 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-17)ok 200 · 491 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (away)failed 400 · 500 ms
sds defense/team (home)failed 500 · 508 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-14)ok 200 · 512 ms
sds defense/team (away)failed 500 · 512 ms
sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 527 ms
grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 528 ms
sds analytics opponent_defense (home)failed 400 · 529 ms
sds games/date (2026-04-22)ok 200 · 552 ms
grading clv/picksok 200 · 108 ms
dh lineups/{id}/deltaok 200 · 833 ms
odds game timelineok 200 · 1189 ms
grading verdict/boardok 200 · 1546 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 49 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 80 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 106 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 132 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 149 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 188 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 236 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 241 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 247 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (pra)ok 200 · 260 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 266 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 278 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 292 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 295 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 302 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 304 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 310 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 378 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 397 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 401 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 431 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 433 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 438 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 441 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 443 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 445 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 448 ms
sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 450 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 460 ms
sds analytics player_vs_line (three_pointers_made)ok 200 · 516 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1481 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1482 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1518 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1515 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1518 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1553 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1553 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1554 ms
odds player timeline (pra)ok 200 · 1558 ms
odds player timeline (rebounds)ok 200 · 1640 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1644 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1644 ms
odds player timeline (threes)ok 200 · 1649 ms
odds player timeline (points)ok 200 · 1654 ms
odds player timeline (assists)ok 200 · 1765 ms
Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.