NBA · May 4 gameAll props Full sheet

Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets

FinalGSW 103 – HOU 89Page updated 20:35 UTC

Original picks and recorded results

No saved picks to grade.

Saved picks

0Posted odds · decimal

Check minutes · 9 availability alerts

Out Williams · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · GSW

Out II · left knee inflammation (knee) · GSW

Out III · right aclrepair/surgery · GSW

Out Porziņģis · not with team · GSW

Out Moody · left knee tendon repair/surgery · GSW

Out Capela · right ankle sprain (ankle) · HOU

Out Phillips · two-way · HOU

Out Copeland · two-way · HOU

Out Adams · right soleus strain · HOU

No playing-time estimates are available.

We had no picks in this game.

How to read the prices

Over means more than the posted line; Under means fewer. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, including the stake. Row order follows lineup status and available prices, not a confidence ranking.

Getting a better price than most bookmakers offer is the only thing that made money in our past tests, measured on WNBA bets; NBA has not been measured yet. Player rates are context, not tips.

Availability to check

Out Williams · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · GSW

Out II · left knee inflammation (knee) · GSW

Out III · right aclrepair/surgery · GSW

Out Porziņģis · not with team · GSW

Out Moody · left knee tendon repair/surgery · GSW

Out Capela · right ankle sprain (ankle) · HOU

Out Phillips · two-way · HOU

Out Copeland · two-way · HOU

Out Adams · right soleus strain · HOU

Players and minutes12 players in the available roster

Minutes are source estimates, not guaranteed playing time. Historical hit rates describe past games; they are not a forecast.

Golden State Warriors

Brandin Podziemski · minutes unknown

rebounds 5.5 → 3 actual

Draymond Green · minutes unknown

points 8.5 → 16 actual

Stephen Curry · minutes unknown

points 27.5 → 22 actual

Gary Payton II · Out · left knee inflammation (knee)

points 6.5 → no final stat available

Jimmy Butler III · Out · right aclrepair/surgery · listed out, then played

rebounds 6.5 → 8 actual

Moses Moody · Out · left patellar tendon repair/surgery · listed out, then played

points 8.5 → 0 actual

Houston Rockets

Alperen Sengun · minutes unknown

rebounds 10.5 → 14 actual

Amen Thompson · minutes unknown

rebounds 7.5 → 9 actual

Fred VanVleet · minutes unknown

assists 4.5 → 3 actual

Jabari Smith Jr. · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 3 actual

Tari Eason · minutes unknown

points 6.5 → 5 actual

Steven Adams · Out · right soleus strain · listed out, then played

points 7.5 → 3 actual

Explore every player and prop

Availability and game contextGame odds, lineups, workload and rest

Game odds

Game odds unavailable.

What could go wrong

updated 20:35 UTC

Who is out

Out Williams · left hamstring strain (hamstring) · GSW

Out II · left knee inflammation (knee) · GSW

Out III · right aclrepair/surgery · GSW

Out Porziņģis · not with team · GSW

Out Moody · left knee tendon repair/surgery · GSW

Richard · likely to play · left thumb ucltear (thumb) · GSW

Out Capela · right ankle sprain (ankle) · HOU

Out Phillips · two-way · HOU

Out Copeland · two-way · HOU

Out Adams · right soleus strain · HOU

Lineup changes unavailable right now.

Lineups

Expected starting lineup, not yet confirmed

Playing time

No playing-time estimates are available.

Rest

Both teams had at least two days between their last game and this one.

Bookmakers

The reference bookmaker, Pinnacle, offers 0 of the 261 lines; the rest rely on other bookmakers.

Every pick is priced by at least 2 bookmakers.

When a player is out, that player's lines are removed: in our past results this helped. Guessing which teammates benefit was also tested and lost money, so nothing else on this page is adjusted for it.

Your reads and game resultsPredictions closed at game start

What happened

In 2 of 7 cases where a player's past record disagreed with the bookmakers' price, the past record was right in this game. One game proves nothing.

FinalWe had no picks in this game · every posted line is still scored below

12 other players with a posted line

Moses Moody · points 8.5 → 0 · 8.5 below the line · played 10.8 min · no final price

Draymond Green · points 8.5 → 16 · 7.5 above the line · played 39.9 min · no final price

Steven Adams · points 7.5 → 3 · 4.5 below the line · played 25.7 min · no final price

Jabari Smith Jr. · points 6.5 → 3 · 3.5 below the line · played 12.1 min · no final price

Brandin Podziemski · rebounds 5.5 → 3 · 2.5 below the line · played 39.7 min · no final price

Alperen Sengun · rebounds 10.5 → 14 · 3.5 above the line · played 39.9 min · no final price

Fred VanVleet · assists 4.5 → 3 · 1.5 below the line · played 43.9 min · no final price

Jimmy Butler III · rebounds 6.5 → 8 · 1.5 above the line · played 44.7 min · no final price

Tari Eason · points 6.5 → 5 · 1.5 below the line · played 15.9 min · no final price

Stephen Curry · points 27.5 → 22 · 5.5 below the line · played 45.5 min · no final price

Amen Thompson · rebounds 7.5 → 9 · 1.5 above the line · played 37.2 min · no final price

Gary Payton II · points 6.5 → no final stat available · no final price

Each prediction is recorded as if you had staked 1 at the line you saw, and your record is shown here. One game tells you nothing yet.

Open My reads

More context

Head to head

HOU vs GSW · last 30 games · GSW leads · HOU record 8–22 · average score 105.4–111.4 · HOU has lost by 5.9 on average

Team results are background only; they say nothing about any single player's line.

5 Apr · HOU 117 at GSW 116HOU won

5 Mar · GSW 115 at HOU 113HOU lost

What each defense gives up per game

GSW gives up111.2 points · 41.5 rebounds · 26.7 assists · 34.0% from three-point range

HOU gives up106.0 points · 40.2 rebounds · 24.1 assists · 31.4% from three-point range

Defense by position

How much this is worth

Defense-by-position numbers are mostly random from season to season; shown for context only. We tested it: a team's defense-by-position numbers from one half of the season do not predict the other half, so treat them as noise.

GSW gives up 111.2 points a game · 12th of 30 · league average 113.3−2.1 vs average

HOU gives up 106.0 points a game · 5th of 30 · league average 113.3−7.3 vs average

How the game odds moved

No history of the game odds on file.

Data log (technical)

Technical detail for auditing; the plain version is above. Internal ids and formula names print here only.

Line-shopping measurement: project_conditional_minutes_refuted

Defense-by-position measurement: split-half reliability r = -0.033 across 12 cells (7 of 12 negative) against a shuffle null of 0.000; a placebo using the wrong position family reproduced the effect to within 0.12pp · project_dvp_blowout_gate_refuted · 2026-08-26

Our picks, raw · 0

No raw pick rows for this game.

Checked results, raw (basketball-stats shorthand) · 0

No graded rows for this game.

Data fetches · 69

sds games/date (2025-05-02)ok 200 · 24 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-03)ok 200 · 26 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-27)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds games/date (2025-05-01)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-29)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-23)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-25)ok 200 · 32 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-21)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-30)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-22)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-28)ok 200 · 41 ms

sds defense/team (away)ok 200 · 40 ms

sds games/{id}/boxscoreok 200 · 42 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-26)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-24)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (away)ok 200 · 42 ms

sds defense/team (home)ok 200 · 43 ms

sds analytics opponent_defense (home)ok 200 · 44 ms

sds schedule/team (meetings)ok · 67 ms

sds games/{id}ok 200 · 88 ms

sds lineups/{id}ok 200 · 93 ms

sds rest/team (away)ok 200 · 110 ms

sds rest/team (home)ok 200 · 111 ms

odds game timelinefailed 503 · 124 ms

sds players/team (home)ok 200 · 37 ms

sds players/team (away)ok 200 · 37 ms

grading picks/nightlyok 200 · 141 ms

sds games/date (2025-04-20)ok 200 · 151 ms

grading verdict/boardok 200 · 166 ms

sds injuries/game/{id}ok 200 · 201 ms

sds history (h2h)ok · 261 ms

grading clv/picksok 200 · 129 ms

odds player timeline (assists)failed 503 · 195 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 195 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 196 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 197 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 198 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 197 ms

odds player timeline (rebounds)failed 503 · 198 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 200 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 201 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 201 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 206 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 207 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 219 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 224 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 234 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 243 ms

odds player timeline (points)failed 503 · 244 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (assists)ok 200 · 259 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 259 ms

dh lineups/{id}/deltafailed 404 · 427 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 262 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 265 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 277 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 301 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 317 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 320 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 337 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 377 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 382 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 397 ms

sds analytics player_vs_teamok 200 · 417 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 437 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 538 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 559 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (rebounds)ok 200 · 575 ms

sds analytics player_vs_line (points)ok 200 · 578 ms

Classic view →

The older, longer version of this page is still available as the classic view. Nothing there is tracked in our results; this page is.